South Africa’s power sector is at a historic turning point, looking to transition away from an energy mix dominated by coal toward renewable energy generation. GlobalData recently produced a very optimistic forecast. By 2035, renewables will generate 31.3% of the nation’s total energy generation! This transition acknowledges South Africa’s vast renewable energy potential. It fills an important gap by focusing on the urgent need to reduce the country’s reliance on thermal power, which constituted 72% of the total capacity in 2024.
The current landscape reveals that while thermal power dominates, South Africa has initiated measures to foster a sustainable energy future. The country’s Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) provides a framework that aims to significantly increase renewable energy capacity. By 2030, the blueprint envisions 6,000 megawatts of solar photovoltaic (PV) and 14,400 megawatts of wind power. This ambitious, costly—and some would say reckless—undertaking shows the federal government’s commitment to investment in supporting and hastening the energy transition.
The Current State of Energy in South Africa
As of 2024, renewables only make up a paltry 8.9% of South Africa’s total energy generation. Even with that relatively small number, there is much optimism for the growth trajectory of renewable sources. The fraction of renewables in the power capacity mix will surge from 20.5% in 2024. By 2035, it is estimated to climb to an astounding 48.5%. This expected expansion highlights the incredible promise behind renewables as well as the need for far greater investment in this area.
A severe lack of investment has in the past limited the speed at which South Africa has been able to roll out renewable energy. It’s encouraging to see the government taking this challenge head-on. They’ve launched a number of other initiatives to build up the industry, like their Green Fund scheme, which finances energy efficiency and other low-carbon economy-supporting projects.
Government Initiatives and Policy Support
The South African government has actively sought to allow the renewable energy transition to take place through a number of frameworks and plans, most notably the Integrated Resource Plan. The South Africa Renewable Energy Masterplan (SAREM), which just officially launched, is a case in point. Its purpose is to drive market development for the renewables industry and improve economic feasibility. SAREM is committed to realizing the vision of a solar- and offshore wind-powered future. Most critically, it truly engages and catalyzes the federal and private sectors to invest and act toward common goals.
Alongside SAREM, the IRP acts as a roadmap for quickly growing solar and wind capacity to meet ambitious clean energy targets. These state and federal policies set concrete targets and timetables. This framework does not just passively but actively promotes investment and innovation in renewable technologies.
The Road Ahead
South Africa’s transition to a cleaner, more sustainable energy landscape is fraught with challenges but filled with potential. The country’s reliance on thermal power is set to decline significantly as renewables gain traction. Projections indicate that renewables will more than double their share by 2035. Reaching these ambitious targets will take long-term funding commitments and coordinated collaboration among all stakeholders.