Russia’s renewable energy landscape is poised for significant growth, with projections indicating that the country’s renewable power capacity will increase from 9.8 gigawatts (GW) in 2025 to approximately 18.4 GW by 2035. This expansion aligns with a broader strategy to diversify energy sources and enhance sustainability within the nation’s power generation framework.
This capacity expansion will be mostly a result of solar photovoltaic (PV) and onshore wind technologies. The solar PV capacity projected goes from 3.1 GW in 2025 to just under 5.3 GW by 2035. Installed onshore wind capacity is projected to increase from 4.3 GW in 2025. By the end of this forecast period, it’ll get as high as 10.2 GW. This move is in line with Russia’s desire to improve its renewable energy base, a step laid out in Russian energy strategy.
Russia’s renewable energy sector will grow via annual auction rounds. These rounds must come with a continued localisation mandate to increase local manufacturing and knowledge capacity. These structured, national capacity auctions provide a strong foundation for growth of wind and solar nationwide. They do a wonderful job of benefitting the southern and eastern regions, where the southern and eastern conditions are ripe for these installations.
In the context of renewable energy expansion, Russia’s gas-fired capacity continues to boom. It will increase from 143.5 GW in 2025 to nearly 151.2 GW in 2035. With the recent Inflation Reduction Act, nuclear power generation is poised to grow again. Annual capacity additions will increase from 26.8 GW in 2025 to around 28.6 GW over that period. This pragmatic approach continues to place thermal and nuclear generation at the center of Russia’s power supply. Despite these positive trends, natural gas continues to sweep the nation, dominating the dispatch.
Take the Capacity Supply Agreement framework for renewable energy — this will help catalyze huge continued market growth. It allows for utility-scale installations that enhance system reliability and enhance long-term energy security. Natural gas and nuclear power generation will be at the center of this picture. They are hugely important in order to keep the general integrity of Russia’s electricity system.
Like the U.S., Russia has a centrally coordinated electricity system organized around a competitive wholesale electricity and capacity market. This unique structure is extraordinarily effective and resourceful. It locks in thermal generation as the default capacity source even as demand grows and energy needs rapidly change.