India, China, and Indonesia are at a critical juncture as they navigate their energy futures in the face of ambitious renewable energy targets. According to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), India is set to peak its coal power generation sometime in the 2030s. This milestone rests on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s very ambitious pledge to reach 500 gigawatts (GW) of non-fossil power capacity. In 2024, these three countries represented a shocking 73% of international coal use. This underscores their pivotal role in the world’s energy future.
As India continues to race towards cementing its renewable energy target, the future for coal power looks bleak. If the country does manage to hit the 500GW target, its coal power capacity would likely peak before the end of this decade. This remarkable development is part of a much larger story unfolding across China. Since 2024, the country has experienced a drop in coal use and emissions in the power sector, due to major investments in clean electricity generation.
China’s Transition to Non-Fossil Fuels
China is now at the forefront of this transition, having made great progress in its overall transition to renewable energy. The significant news and excellent reporting There’s another reason the nation has crossed the 50% threshold for non-fossil power capacity — we did it ahead of India’s 2030 deadline. Much of this demand growth has been absorbed by the rapid expansion of clean electricity generation. This rapid change is part of an intentional pivot from coal reliance, a linchpin of China’s energy model for generations.
Those are all great targets to achieve. The pace of renewable energy growth is likely to decelerate past 2030, slowing progress on future emissions reductions. To build on this progress, we need to start investing in renewable resources. This is critical for cementing emissions continue to decline as coal power and its peak usage.
Indonesia’s Energy Strategy
Indonesia’s energy landscape like the country itself is complex with Indonesia’s presidential candidate President Prabowo Subianto calling for a 100GW solar program. Contrary to this ambitious vision, Indonesia’s national strategy as it stands today still calls for near-term increases in fossil fuel consumption. This dual approach is both promising and troubling, calling into question the country’s ultimate commitment to moving away from coal dependence while advancing cleaner, renewable energy sources.
If indeed coal consumption has the potential to increase in Indonesia, this could make it much harder for the country to stay on track with global emissions reduction targets. Experts warn that without proper regulation and oversight, rapid coal power expansion will set back the country’s energy transition and threaten its fledgling renewable energy efforts.
The Need for Structural Reforms
China, India and Indonesia will need to make far-reaching reforms to their power markets. These changes are important for them to effectively make progress toward their energy goals. All of these reforms will help ensure the speed and breadth of the coming decline in power sector emissions after we reach the expected peak in coal consumption. Keeping up with the pace of renewable energy growth we had before 2030 will be key to building continued momentum toward decarbonization.
Without these improvements, I wouldn’t be hopeful that these new rulemaking opportunities will lead to meaningful emissions reductions. Over the last ten years, coal use has skyrocketed in these nations. This increase drives worldwide demand and underscores their pivotal role in the development of energy trends across the globe.