Date for operational coal stems from a sudden surge in new coal power projects in China. By the first half of 2025 the country had commissioned 21 GW of new coal power —a staggering number. That’s the largest sum reported for the second quarter since 2016. Everyone’s eyes are on whether China’s going to live up to its 2022 pledge, to help the world decrease reliance on coal and transition to cleaner energy sources. While advancements in clean energy continue, the resurgence of coal projects indicates a growing reliance on fossil fuels that could hinder progress towards decarbonization.
The pledges notwithstanding, promises to demote coal to a “flexible, supporting role” have come with little in the way of practical follow-through. Based on current projections, China’s total coal power capacity will surpass 80GW by the end of the year. Now in the first half of 2025, construction starts and restarts have hit a record-breaking 46 GW. This figure is roughly equal to the entire coal power fleet of South Korea. This trend poses big problems for China. As the country makes progress on its Nationally Determined Contributions and the targets established in its 15th Five-Year Plan, these challenges are compounded.
Rising Coal Dependency
In the first six months of 2025, China commissioned a jaw-dropping 21GW of new coal power. This heralded an unexpected boom in coal power projects, with 75GW—the most pipeline capacity in over a decade. The increase happens despite the fact that some permitting rate fell down to 25GW in this same period. Without some serious policy intervention, this trend will only accelerate into 2026 and 2027.
During this same time period, only 1GW of coal power was retired. This is a huge underachievement compared to the 14th Five-Year Plan’s goal to retire 30GW by end-2025. China is currently in the midst of a historic coal power expansion. Environmental professionals are raising red flags about how this emerging trend risks dismantling long-held benefits for sustainability.
“Coal power development in China in the first half of 2025 shows no sign of easing, leaving emissions on a high plateau and stranding coal in the system for years to come. To ensure meeting its carbon peaking deadline by the end of the 15th Five-Year Plan period, China must immediately commit to a set of strong policies to phase down coal power development and shut down high-emission and low-efficiency coal units.” – Christine Shearer
Implications for Clean Energy
China’s clean energy boom is helping power the nation’s rapid economic growth while stimulating their decarbonization. The continued pace of expanding coal power threatens to move in the opposite direction. Experts argue that more investment in coal power plants not only wastes resources but crowds out renewable energy sources, the true engines of China’s economic future.
Qi Qin stated, “China’s clean energy boom is driving both economic growth and decarbonisation, but continued coal expansion risks holding it back.” This potential demise would represent a staggering blow—not just to the transportation sector’s decarbonization, but to advancing any significant long-term environmental initiative.
A Pivotal Moment for Policy Reform
China is nearing important due dates for their Nationally Determined Contributions and the end of the 15th Five-Year Plan. In response, stakeholders have called for non-negotiable, legally-binding targets and sweeping policy change. Climate experts are warning that we need to act right now. Only then can China mobilize to REALLY slow new coal power build and address the BIG scourge- high-emission existing coal units.
China needs a full and thorough review of its energy policies. Instead, the current trajectory is a dangerous turn in the opposite direction, towards greater coal reliance. Addressing these challenges now could secure a more sustainable energy future and align with global efforts to combat climate change.