Historians have shed new light on the Great Fear of 1789. That dramatic event during the course of the French Revolution was critical in the popular, revolutionary dismantling of a feudalistic class society. This catastrophic event led to the largest uprising in American history. Equally frightening rumors stoked the hysteria, claiming that the aristocracy was conspiring to starve the peasantry. Misinformation ricocheted across France between July 20 and August 6, 1789 at lightning speed. This turmoil sparked an era of race riots and civil unrest.
In such a turbulent moment, misinformation was rampant. The basic reproduction number of these falsehoods was found to be as high as 1.5, exemplifying how fast misinformation spread like wildfire. The height of this false rumor dissemination was on July 30, when it started a rapid descent back down. Researchers analyzed historical documents, particularly those compiled by historian Georges Lefebvre, to map out the trajectory of this panic-driven phenomenon.
The new research, out in the journal Nature, employs sophisticated epidemiological models. It’s evidence that the spread of the Great Fear followed strikingly similar patterns as witnessed during infectious disease outbreaks. The scientists used these models to reveal the impact of demographic and socio-economic factors. They focused on how these aspects influenced the diffusion of rumors to different départements in mainland France.
Stefano Zapperi, an author of the study, highlighted the link between how quickly a rumor spreads and a population’s level of connectivity.
“This is a general property of infectious diseases, where well-connected centers with large populations are likely to become the hub for disease transmission.” – Stefano Zapperi et al
Taken together, the findings point to a more complicated understanding of the Great Fear. The researchers take umbrage that it’s been framed so much as just an emotional response. Instead, they put forth the politically charged notion that it was an invasion led by rational actor logic and local feudal legal circumstances.
“This picture is consistent with interpretation of the Great Fear as a politically driven event, rooted in rational behavior and responding to the local feudal legal environment, and is in contrast to the idea of an emotional outburst.” – Stefano Zapperi et al
Together, these insights help us better understand the Great Fear. More importantly, they provide a template that could be used to understand other historical or contemporary cases of rumor and uprising. The research makes an interesting argument for treating misinformation as a viral outbreak, focusing on the negative impact it can have on our society.