The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) just published its latest Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDC, Synthesis Report. Unfortunately, according to this report, the world is currently only on track to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 17% by 2035, according to national plans submitted by 64 countries. This figure is significantly below the 60% reduction target set by scientists to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
As of September 30, 2023, the NDCs submitted by these countries account for nearly a third of global emissions combined. These are good signs, but the report still paints a challenging picture of future emissions. As UNFCCC Executive Secretary Simon Stiell reminds us, it’s high time to pick up the pace on our climate action. Overall, these results paint a deeply sobering picture. The pledges we have are nowhere near enough to meet the ambitious targets needed to prevent devastating climate effects.
Notably, China has committed to cutting its economy-wide net greenhouse gas emissions by 7% to 10% over the next decade. The ink is barely dry on the European Union’s blueprint, a widely-praised roadmap that faces tough negotiations to reach agreement among its 27 member states. Public hearings are scheduled for November 4. In comparison, India still hasn’t provided a clear date of when it will submit an updated, more ambitious NDC.
The report featured homecoming climate pledges by a myriad of countries, such as Canada and Japan. Brazil, the United Kingdom and Norway were among the largest contributors. Not to mention South Africa, Malaysia, and Indonesia having recently submitted much more ambitious NDCs. Their continued advocacy is driving the conversation as we look forward toward a COP30 leaders’ summit in Belém, Brazil. Even still, we expect more submissions this time around, as countries get ready for this big milestone event.
Under the Paris Agreement, countries are bound to update their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) every five years. Now, the next submissions are not due until 2025. Many of these plans show emissions peaking before 2030 and then declining rapidly after 2035. Unfortunately, in practice nearly all countries that make a commitment to these plans aim for net zero emissions no sooner than 2050.
The UN just delivered the biggest canary in the coal mine warning. Without countries strengthening their commitments, the world is on a path for temperatures to increase by 2.1°C and 2.8°C above pre-industrial levels by 2100. This projection highlights the urgent need for countries to take more decisive action on their climate pledges to mitigate the worst effects of climate change.