As climate change progresses, air travel will continue to suffer from worsening conditions of turbulence. Mohamed Foudad, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Reading in the UK, is spearheading two studies aimed at mitigating this phenomenon. The first of those two studies looks at ways to minimize a flight’s departure through known turbulence hotspots, while the second aims to make forecasting turbulence more accurate. This important new research paints a very alarming picture of how climate change will increase turbulence. It poses serious and important questions for the safety of aviation.
Increasingly, over the years, turbulence has become a substantial concern for both the airlines and passengers. Turbulence related passenger injuries from U.S. commercial flights 2009-2024 Between 2009 and 2024, there were 8,429 reported injuries on passenger flights globally due to turbulence. This statistic alone emphasizes the critical need for innovation both in our technology and comprehension of our atmospheric conditions. Foudad’s research, along with the help of other specialists in the field, is helping to assuage those fears and develop quieter, safer skies for everyone.
Understanding Turbulence
Turbulence can be broadly categorized into three main types: convective turbulence, mountain wave turbulence, and clear-air turbulence (CAT). Each category poses different threats to pilots and occupants. Foudad hopes that acknowledging these populations’ differences will help maximize flight routes and improve efficiency and equity.
Recent results by Isabel Smith’s 2023 paper mention that climate change plays an important factor in the frequency of CAT. Each degree Celsius of near-surface warming would ultimately be associated with a 9% increase in moderate CAT during North Atlantic winters. Summers can experience up to a 14% increase. These changes are especially alarming as winter weather has been known to produce the worst turbulence. Thanks to climate change, that same summer and autumnal season are growing just as chaotic.
As with many things aeronautical, recent high-profile incidents have carried turbulence squarely into the public consciousness. Notable cases, such as an Air Europa flight and a Singapore Airlines flight, have underscored the potential dangers associated with unexpected turbulence encounters. These events galvanized researchers such as Foudad and his colleagues to act. At the same time, they’re researching how aviation can respond to a changing climate.
Technological Innovations
Robert Sharman, a senior scientist emeritus at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, highlights the promising technologies being tested to improve turbulence detection. One of the most promising technology boons is onboard LIDAR (Light Detection and Ranging). For one, it’s sensitive enough to pick up the smallest variations in air density and wind speed. This cutting edge technology is absolutely essential for improving forecasting precision and creating the safest possible flight paths.
Even with these technological capabilities, turbulence has continued to be a thorny problem for airlines. Sharman is quick to point out that aircraft need inspections after “moderate” or “severe” encounters with turbulence. These kinds of incidents happen about 5,000 times a year, just over the continental United States. This final step is critical to ensuring the safety, security and reliability of commercial aircraft.
Turbulence has economic implications for airlines. When pilots are forced to deviate from optimal altitudes, alter routes, or change speeds due to turbulence, fuel consumption increases significantly. This results in increased operational costs and negative environmental effects. By better forecasting and optimizing flight paths around turbulence, these financial impacts can be avoided and passenger safety can be improved.
The Path Forward
Climate change is having a powerful, all-encompassing effect on atmospheric circulation and stability. To address the problem of turbulence, a big-picture, multi-prong strategy is required. Cutting greenhouse gas emissions at the source is essential to combating the impacts of climate change and its impact on aviation. Experts like John Abraham, a mechanical engineering professor at the University of St. Thomas, stress the importance of collective action to curb emissions and protect future air travel.
Foudad’s future research is intended to arm airlines with the decision-making tools they need to successfully ride out these unprecedented times. By analyzing data from 1980 to 2021, his studies contribute valuable insights into how climate change is reshaping aviation dynamics.