In a new study, Carrie Nugent and her team provides a comprehensive look at the chances of dying from an asteroid impact. Importantly, they’ve taken what are really complex probabilities and risks and made them digestible to the general public. The scientists focused on NEOs of a size greater than 140 meters. They have placed an estimate that an impact from one of these objects occurs approximately once every 11,000 years. This rare, long window of time raises key questions. How do these odds compare to the everyday dangers Americans face in their lives?
Using Monte Carlo simulations of 5 million NEOs, the researchers determined the probability of various NEOs colliding with Earth. Their conclusions indicate that there’s a higher chance of being hit by an asteroid over 140 meters than struck by lightning or bitten by a coyote during your lifetime. This eye-opening finding underscores just how dangerous these heavenly bodies really are. This is a surprising discovery that helps us to better understand asteroid impacts. While they are rare, they are not as unlikely as a number of common daily hazards we encounter.
Understanding Asteroid Impact Risks
An asteroid impact would fundamentally and severely change life on Earth. Some threats are best explained with historical precedent, such as the asteroid that wiped out most life on Earth roughly 65 million years ago. The study highlights that the consequences of an impact depend on various factors, including the velocity of the asteroid and its landing location. Even for a smaller asteroid, say 140 meters across, the risks are different. In comparison, a far larger asteroid, 100 times the size at 10 kilometers across, would cause the vast majority of people to perish.
Nugent and her co-authors sought to compare these risks head-to-head. Their aim was to illustrate the low risk of dying from an asteroid impact versus other unfortunate events. They pointed out that, statistically, you are more likely to contract the flu or die in a car crash over the course of your life. By comparison, the odds of getting hit by an asteroid are tiny. The goal of this comparison is to greatly illustrate how rare asteroid impacts are.
A Comprehensive Risk Analysis
The study controlled for a number of competing risks very carefully. It went on to compare the odds of dying by asteroid impact with those associated with other preventable occurrences. What citizens are left to deal with are the more palatable proliferations of danger, be it carbon monoxide poisoning or even elephant attacks. The chance of an asteroid impact is even more unlikely. This kind of analysis is important not only for public understanding, but for education and risk assessment.
Perhaps even more impressively, Nugent’s team went the extra mile to provide a comprehensive explanation of what these odds mean in their report. Statistical comparisons show that asteroid impacts are extremely low-frequency but high-severity threats. Tremors aside, they are quite literally a rare occurrence compared to the other more daily hazards we all face. This applied research seeks to ignite interest and imagination among the public on these critical issues. At the same time, it underscores the importance of being ready to face pressing, near-term threats.
Implications of the Findings
The consequences of this study go far beyond the numbers. With this new research, the researchers hope to expand our overall understanding of risk management. They accomplish this by putting asteroid impact hazards in the context of more familiar threats. The findings underscore a critical point: while asteroid impacts can result in catastrophic outcomes, they are not among the most pressing dangers that individuals face daily.
This study continues to attract attention. These days, much to our pleasure, it’s not hard to find through outlets such as phys.org, where it was picked up on August 11th, 2025. Krystal Kasal was the lead author of the study, and Gaby Clark contributed edits. Production by Robert Egan, Fact check Robert Egan did some intense fact checking, ensuring its credibility and accuracy.