The Scarborough project will start producing liquefied natural gas in 2026. This production is likely to have a profoundly negative effect on global warming and human health for decades. With any luck, that project will be underway for at least 31 years. It is certain to increase temperatures around the world and put millions of people at risk of extreme heat like they’ve never experienced. Public opinion about the dangers of climate change is changing just as quickly. Newly published studies spotlight the alarming results of this harmful fossil fuel plan.
The Scarborough project’s emissions are expected to raise global temperatures an average of 0.00039 degrees Celsius. While this modest increase does not sound like much, the impact can be catastrophic. It would put another 560,000 people around the world at risk of extreme heat impacts. In addition, it is projected that 356,000 people will end up beyond the human climate niche as a result of these emissions.
Beyond the direct human impact, these emissions will have a direct impact on one of the world’s most important ecosystems, the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). The Scarborough project would substantially increase thermal exposure. In consequence, we can anticipate the deaths of at least 16 million coral colonies with each future GBR mass bleaching event.
Long-term Emissions and Health Risks
According to projections, the anticipated emissions from the Scarborough project will account for nearly half (49%) of Australia’s entire annual CO2 emissions budget by 2049. This was particularly troubling, as it suggested the project’s large and adverse contribution to the country’s greenhouse gas output.
With climate targets continuing to tighten, experts are starting to sound the alarm. They concede that emissions from the Scarborough project post-2050 will need to be offset by fast and effective CO2 removal technologies for Australia to uphold its emissions reduction obligations. Dr. Nicola Maher emphasized the enormity of this challenge:
“That would require a huge increase in the effectiveness and scale of carbon capture and storage technology. For example, in 2023, human activities to move carbon dioxide from the atmosphere into storage amounted to only 0.04 million tons of carbon dioxide globally, which is equivalent to just 0.6% of the planned annual Australian emissions from the Scarborough project.”
Given the transformational scale of this project, the health implications extend well beyond local boundaries. Climate research estimates that emissions from Scarborough would cause at least 484 extra heat-related deaths in Europe alone. As of this century’s end, these emissions are expected to result in 118 additional lives lost, according to experts. The good news is that this prediction is based on a middle-of-the-road emissions pathway.
Discrepancies in Fossil Fuel Project Impact Claims
The conclusions of the Scarborough project are in vivid opposition to the expectations of its developers. Other fossil fuel projects similarly routinely claim no or de minimis greenhouse gas emissions. Professor Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick stated:
“The majority of Australia’s new fossil fuel projects describe their anticipated greenhouse gas outputs as ‘negligible’ in the context of global emissions and claim they’re unable to measure contributions to global warming, while also ignoring expected impacts.”
Maybe that’s why scientists have grown alarmed at the rhetoric that fossil fuel companies are using. They fear that it’s misleading and doesn’t accurately show the true environmental impacts from these companies’ activities.
“But our research shows emissions output from this new project is far from negligible.”
The case studies on the Scarborough project further provides a robust, science-based groundwork. We hope this foundation can assist both companies and governments in assessing the production- and consumption-related impacts of fossil fuel production and consumption. Dr. Nicola Maher remarked that precise quantification of these impacts is key to making evidence-based decisions.
“These findings contrast sharply with claims that individual fossil fuel projects will have negligible impacts.”
The pollution caused by the Scarborough project would worsen immediate climate and environmental suffering. At the same time, they overwhelm abundant short-term opportunities for climate action and public health. Especially as countries contend with climate change, knowing the actual price tag of fossil fuel production proves to be more essential than ever.
A Foundation for Future Research and Policy
The research surrounding the Scarborough project establishes a compelling science-based foundation that can assist both companies and governments in assessing the ramifications of fossil fuel production and consumption. Dr. Nicola Maher noted that accurate quantification of these consequences is essential for informed decision-making.
The implications of the Scarborough project’s emissions extend beyond immediate environmental impacts; they pose significant long-term challenges for climate policy and public health. As nations grapple with climate change, understanding the true costs associated with fossil fuel production becomes increasingly critical.