A team of researchers has developed a groundbreaking model of Antarctica's Aurora Subglacial Basin (ASB), shedding new light on the dynamics of water flow beneath the ice. During 11 years of research, scientists collected a vast amount of information to create the ASB model. This model reveals a previously undocumented water channel deep below the ice, providing a lubricant that allows glaciers to flow. In fact, anticipate more water flowing down the river in the coming decades. This modification would produce more realistic ice thinning overall across ice shelves.
According to researchers Anna-Mireilla Hayden and Tyler Pelle of the University of Waterloo in Canada, who created the ASB model, they worked closely with Christine Dow from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in the U.S. Their modeling results, published recently in the journal Nature Communications, highlight the risk for extreme shifts in the ASB’s water balance. In fact, their model predicts that flow underneath the glacier could increase fivefold by 2100. This increase in flow would cause an ice thinning increase of around 20-50% over the entire ice shelves.
Under this new model, what’s happening under Antarctic ice today can’t be assumed to be what will happen in the future. The amount of water flowing under the Totten Glacier is about to increase significantly. By the end of this century, it will transport five times more water, fundamentally altering the survival of the entire ASB. These modifications can make it more difficult to predict exactly how fast the ice sheets will melt. Perhaps more importantly, they have the potential to impact overall continental-wide ice cover.
The ASB model was developed with a fine-tooth radar for data gathered with penetrating radar over decades. To better understand what the ASB may do, researchers have examined ASB historical data and modeled potential future ASB behavior. This study breaks new ground by offering key details about its evolution. The model predicts an increase in the rate of flow of water. This compounds issues for predicting the rate of ice sheet and continental ice melt.