A new analysis reveals that 389 million hectares of land worldwide could be utilized for reforestation, presenting a significant opportunity in the global effort to combat climate change. As countries announce big plans for replanting entire ecosystems, how do we ensure these commitments are realistic and effective? Brazil, Russia and the United States have the biggest potential for reforestation. Despite these challenges, there are some areas where the world is making great progress.
To date, more than 230 million hectares worth of reforestation efforts have been pledged from 2021 to 2030. This represents 59% of the identified possible area. Most strikingly, the Americas and Europe hold the biggest shares of this unbuilt land, at 42% and 26%, respectively. The unequal distribution of commitments among regions begs the question: what overall effect are these initiatives having on getting the world to net-zero emissions?
Global Reforestation Insights
China stands out as a leader in global reforestation efforts, having successfully implemented significant projects over the past four decades. The country has managed to store around 7 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) through its reforestation initiatives, showcasing what is possible with coordinated efforts. Today, all global reforestation projects put together only sequester an estimated 1.9 billion metric tons of CO2 per year.
If trees were planted on the identified 389 million hectares, experts estimate that about 4.9 billion metric tons of CO2 could be sequestered each year until 2050. This potential quickly diminishes. It decreases to only 1.5 billion metric tons when we take into account only existing national commitments on what counts as appropriate land. This jarring discrepancy illustrates an urgent chasm between the country’s capacity to commit and the actual funds committed to date.
Regional Commitments and Challenges
At least 50 percent of the land pledged for reforestation is contributed by African countries. Yet these countries represent just 4% of the global land area considered appropriate for such ambitious restoration. This imbalance is especially seen in the plight of low- and middle-income countries. Their lack of available land makes reforestation initiatives even more difficult for them. Pledges from other parts of the world, including Europe and South America, aren’t adding up. Only 13% and 16% of their current potential ranges have been committed to for reforestation, respectively.
A deeper look at particular pledges reveals an important trend. Most of the territory pledged by nations such as Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Ethiopia are mostly savanna ecosystems. These ecosystems, characterized by naturally occurring open landscapes with sparse tree cover, form critical habitats for a multitude of mammalian, avian, and insect species. As such, they are not appropriate for normal reforestation projects, adding additional difficulty to the mission of achieving effective carbon sequestration.
The Road Ahead for Reforestation Efforts
Despite the substantial potential for reforestation to contribute to climate goals, experts caution that current efforts may not yield significant results without a fundamental shift in strategy. One excellent example of well-intentioned tree-planting with the purpose of re-vitalizing communities is Australia’s 20 Million Trees Program. That is only about 0.04% of the nation’s projected greenhouse gas emissions it will capture.
Countries are under tremendous pressure to deliver their climate promises. Yet a more strategic approach to reforestation will be key to advancing it more effectively and successfully. This means prioritizing the right types of lands, increasing equity and biodiversity benefits, and making sure that these commitments are converted into quantifiable action. Without these kinds of improvements, we may never see the ambitious goal of net-zero emissions achieved by planting trees realized.
