U.S. forecasters are calling for an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2025. They encourage both residents and government officials to take necessary steps to be ready for the projected uptick in storm activity. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) just put out its preseason outlook. It forecasts that the new season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, will generate 13 to 19 named storms. Of these, only 6 to 10 storms are forecast to develop into hurricanes.
Key Influencing Factors
Meteorologists track different environmental factors that affect hurricane development. Of these, sea surface temperature is perhaps the most influential factor.
“Once water temperatures are 79°F (26°C), hurricanes can form.”
This temperature threshold is important, because 78°F temperatures are the point at which conditions become favorable for tropical storm development. Besides sea temp, the ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) phenomenon is one of the biggest drivers of hurricane activity. La Niña years have typically led to busier hurricane seasons. This is counter to the pattern during El Niño years, which tend to inhibit storm formation.
Although important in hurricane forecasting, the role of African easterly waves has great significance. Over the eastern Atlantic ocean, clusters of thunderstorms known as tropical waves are generated. They journey across the Atlantic and these trips, more often than not, activate storms in their wake. Meteorologists are crunching the numbers from last season. They note that these waves tend to go hand-in-hand with heightened storm activity.
Potential Challenges Ahead
Despite the forecast calling for an active season, a few factors might cool down hurricane activity. One such reason is the impact of dust from the Sahara Desert.
“Dust blowing in from the Sahara Desert can tamp down hurricane activities by shading the ocean over the main development region for hurricanes and drying out the atmosphere, just off the African coast.”
This occurrence has the opposite effect of providing an unfavorable environment for storms to develop by reducing moisture in the air. Meteorologists warn that it doesn’t take the risk out of the equation.
“It’s important to remember that these are generally the busiest areas during each month of hurricane season,” experts note, “that doesn’t mean hurricanes won’t make landfall elsewhere.”
On a more localized scale, the Madden–Julian Oscillation helps to modulate hurricane activity. This subseasonal factor has the potential to either boost or suppress storm formation, depending on what phase of the oscillation it is in during certain months.
Preparedness Remains Vital
Though 2025 draws near, officials are calling on coastal communities to stay alert and ready for any future storms that may come their way.
“If you live along the coast, don’t let your guard down.”
This message serves as a reminder that even if forecasts suggest variability in storm activity, areas prone to hurricanes must always be ready for unexpected weather events. Soaring hurricane seasons continue to bear down, in some cases for decades, with irreversible consequences on marginalized communities. It would only take one big storm to have an impact.