Dipesh Singh Chuphal and Vimal Mishra have uncovered disturbing results. As a result, they proved how synchronous droughts are increasing in frequency, despite their scholarship’s focus on India’s most prominent rivers. Their study combines 50 years of streamflow data from 45 gauge stations. It found that droughts have become more severe over the period from 1850 to 2014, a time period that overlaps with a warming climate. The study reconstructs an unprecedented 800 years of streamflow records. It shows the important connection between changing climate conditions and water access for more than two billion people across the region.
In their study, the researchers accessed high-resolution temperature and precipitation data. They employed a wide range of paleoclimate proxies to thoroughly reconstruct past patterns of climate. This methodological addition proved instrumental as we were able to provide a deeper analysis of other major climatic occurrences such as El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole.
Methodology and Data Sources
Special thanks to Chuphal and Mishra’s interdisciplinary study that used a rigorous methodology that combined multiple climate data sources. They relied on historical records, which encapsulate patterns such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, along with insights from the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas. This atlas, which features tree ring data, extends the research timeline further back, illustrating summer drought conditions across Asia from 1200 to 2012.
For this study, the researchers chose two models from the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project Phase 4 (PMIP4). With these models, they simulated large sets of precipitation and temperature data. An additional hydrological model was used to forecast streamflow from 1200 to 2012. This concerted approach has made it possible to uncover disturbing patterns in our drought events, chiefly the growing risk of concurrent global synchronous droughts.
“The Katni River in Madhya Pradesh, India, grew dry and patchy during a 2016 drought.” – Anishdayal, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
Findings on Synchronous Droughts
The paper documents an astounding spike in synchronous droughts between the years 1850 and 2014. This dramatic increase could not be further from what was observed during the preindustrial centuries. The findings indicate that these occurrences are not only related, but much more directly tied to our artificially warmed climate. With the Indian Ocean warming and as climate change weakens summer monsoons, the potential for these two regions to experience simultaneous droughts is sure to increase. To make matters worse, anthropogenic emissions and over-groundwater pumping make this already precarious situation worse.
Chuphal and Mishra’s analysis emphasizes the implications of these findings for India’s water security. Over two billion people rely on some of the world’s largest rivers for their economic livelihoods. Future, simultaneous droughts would severely jeopardize their access to this essential resource. The researchers caution that ongoing climate shifts may threaten the stability of water supply throughout the subcontinent.
Implications for Water Security
The reality of the research paints a vivid picture that rising synchronous droughts are more than numbers. They pose significant opportunities to improve water governance and management across India. The rapid expansion of severe drought impacts food security and clean drinking water for millions.
Our study is a timely and important reminder of the interconnectedness of climate patterns and climate impacts on human life. Policymakers and environmentalists have a hard road ahead. By learning from past climate patterns, they can create proactive solutions to reduce the effects of climate change on our water supplies.