Christelle Wauthier, an associate professor in Penn State’s Department of Geosciences, has tackled some of the toughest challenges in volcanic hazards research. Her work now primarily revolves around the creation of computational models. These models are used to evaluate the dynamic stability of volcanoes like the famous Mount St. Helens. This joint initiative is helping to reduce the human and economic impacts of natural hazards like volcanic eruptions, landslides and earthquakes. Wauthier is an E and E faculty affiliate of the Earth and Environmental Systems Institute. She leads the computational sciences hub at the Institute for Computational and Data Sciences.
This joint project features original contributions from former graduate student Judit Gonzalez-Santana. Her contribution was as an integral and crucial postdoctoral scholar in Wauthier’s research group. Jay Sui Tung, an assistant professor in geophysics at Texas Tech University, gives many helpful tips to the project. Timothy Masterlark, a faculty member at the South Dakota School of Mines and Technology, rounds out his expertise. Together, they are extending the frontiers of what’s possible in terms of how scientists monitor and forecast volcanic activity.
Collaborative Research Efforts
Wauthier’s research team has accomplished significant progress in mathematically modeling slope stability of peaks. These new modeling techniques have relied on data-driven approaches to model different conditions that could result in a collapse or an eruption. This novel approach is a big step towards grasping the physical processes driving volcanic eruptions.
Gonzalez-Santana was of vital importance to this study getting completed as she moved from graduate school into a post-doc. Her knowledge of geosciences was vital to muting the models and fact-checking the desired look they were going for. Partnering with specialists such as Tung and Masterlark increases the credibility of such models. Their experiences inform a balanced view of the good, the bad and the ugly surrounding volcanic hazards.
The team’s methodology is at once theoretical and applied, both humanistic and STEM oriented. This strategy ultimately reduces the chance of overfitting, enhancing model performance and increasing the likelihood of successful real-world implementation for monitoring active volcanoes.
Implications for Natural Hazard Mitigation
The ramifications of Wauthier’s study reach far past the ivory tower. By improving our ability to predict the stability of volcanoes, these models enable decision makers to prepare and respond to disasters more effectively and efficiently. Communities residing in the shadow of active volcanoes are at high risk from eruptions. Therefore, mitigating the risks of landslides and tsunamis is of utmost importance in order to safeguard them from disastrous effects.
These models provide a forward-looking modeling tool for the scientific community and emergency management agencies. By predicting potential slope failures, they can issue timely warnings and prepare evacuation plans, potentially saving lives and minimizing property damage. This forward-thinking strategy is a prime example of how scientific research can be combined with effective community safety initiatives.
Wauthier’s art is a great example of how computational tools are reshaping our understanding and appreciation of the natural hazards that surround us. As climate change pushes geological processes to shift in new directions, these kinds of models will be crucial in learning to live with new environmental realities.
Future Directions in Geosciences
While they’ve already achieved impressive accuracy, looking ahead Wauthier sees the potential for even greater refinement of these predictive models. With the incorporation of new machine learning techniques, there is the potential to achieve even higher accuracy while forecasting changes in volcanic behavior. This evolution is a testimony to the dawning realization that complex scientific research increasingly requires the highest levels of advanced technology.
Wauthier still has plenty of work to do, and plans to keep working with her team of technologists and external experts to refine these tools. As they collect more data from multiple volcanoes, they will increase model robustness, resulting in improved forecasting capabilities. Their collaboration with universities such as Texas Tech University and the South Dakota School of Mines bolsters their research capabilities. Collectively, they make their work reach further.
Targeted outreach efforts will help ensure findings are shared with those who need to hear them most. Tapping into existing networks of local communities and governmental agencies is key. That will go a long way toward translating all that research into effective strategies for reducing disaster risks.