Firearms trafficking from the United States to Mexico has recently emerged as one of the most important bilateral issues. This debilitating issue directly affects violence and crime rates in Mexico, hastening the concern from all sectors across the globe.
Trafficking statistics
Recent research has shown that over 24,000 weapons have been trafficked across the border, mainly traced back to U.S. dealers. The U.S. government has invested more than $3 billion since 2008 to stabilize Mexico and combat the escalating violence along the border. It is still a dangerous time.
Additionally, the evidence demonstrates that the overwhelming majority of firearms recovered in Mexico can be traced back to American sources. Our researchers looked closely at all federal court cases. Out of the serializable firearms they found, they found that about 2,900 guns had serial numbers. Nineteen included serial numbers that matched Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) data. Importantly, the findings highlight the low efficacy of existing regulations and enforcement efforts designed to tackle illegal arms trafficking.
The Scope of Trafficking
Firearms trafficking from the U.S. to Mexico is a horrific issue. According to the best available estimates, between 135,000 and 730,000 firearms are smuggled south across the border each year. A powerful report found that even just from 2010 to 2012, an average of about 253,000 firearms were trafficked each year. As of 2022, the most recent middle-range estimate suggested about 135,000 firearms could be trafficked.
The ATF has documented enforcement actions against about 12% of firearm licensees each year, reflecting ongoing efforts to regulate the sale of firearms. Yet from 2014 to 2018, only an estimated 4,000 code violations for federal firearm laws were logged. This criminal complicity illustrates the difficulties law enforcement and regulatory authorities encounter in trying to harmfully regulate the transfer and retail sale of firearms.
According to data from the Mexican army’s Secretariat of National Defense (SEDENA), many weapons seized in Mexico stem from U.S. arms sales. The new leaked ATF dataset shows exactly how dangerous guns seized by Mexican law enforcement are. It adopts the uncomfortable position that over two-thirds of these firearms are emerging from the United States. Pulling together these three datasets gives a more robust understanding of the human trafficking landscape.
Legal Perspectives and Court Cases
A closer look at these recent court cases offers some important lessons about firearms trafficking. On the merits, the court rejected, one by one, nine homestay regulation cases from five states. At the same time, the matches found in the leaked ATF data became known outside of these cases. These 19 matched firearms all originated from various different licensees. This contextualization through sourcing sheds light on trafficking patterns that are not always readily apparent.
This is where the involvement of federal agencies such as the ATF has been instrumental in rectifying these concerns. According to ATF, since enforcement actions against licensees began, the number of firearms sold to traffickers has decreased by 20-44%. Yet given the chronic nature of these violations, it appears that harsher penalties are needed in order to deter this growing wrongdoing.
Additionally, the existence of purge laws seems to have a large impact on recovery rates of illegal firearms. Research demonstrates that these laws substantially improve the ability to recover illicit guns. In fact, they can increase recovery rates from 126% to 257% on a given day, emphasizing how imperative legislative action is in the fight against trafficking.
The Fight Against Firearms Trafficking
Since the early 2000s the U.S. government has invested billions of dollars into efforts to stabilize Mexico and quell its growing violence. Since 2008, governments have committed more than $3 billion to address the illegal trade in arms. This funding should be used to improve the security situation in Mexico. Despite these efforts, challenges remain formidable.
Based on that data, we estimate that approximately 133,000 firearms were recovered by Mexican authorities from January 2010 – March 1, 2023. This statistic illustrates the scope of the issue and the challenges law enforcement officers in both countries are up against. Strengthening cooperation between U.S. and Mexican authorities will be crucial to creating robust strategies to combat arms trafficking.
Knowing the dynamics between licensed firearm dealers and traffickers is instrumental in tackling this crisis. Better evaluation of licensing practices and more vigorous enforcement of licensing violations would help protect communities in the fight against illegal sales.