Global Climate Models (GCMs), also known as Earth System Models (ESMs), play a critical role in predicting global environmental changes. This attention is evident from recent discussions about how best to represent the nitrogen cycle in these models. Yet, even with this recognition, ESMs often fail to holistically represent the intricacies of the nitrogen cycle. This gap may have profound implications for projections related to climate change, biodiversity, food security, and human health.
The Colombo Declaration on Sustainable Nitrogen Management seeks to halve nitrogen waste by 2030. Reaching this target would save nearly $100 billion a year and reduce the impacts of climate change. These experts contend that a more holistic awareness of the nitrogen cycle and nitrogen’s impacts are needed to achieve these goals.
The Importance of the Nitrogen Cycle
The nitrogen cycle is complex and interconnected network of processes through which nitrogen moves between the land, oceans, and atmosphere. This colorful and lively movement that impacts many factors in the environment, such as water quality and marine ecosystem health. Experts assert that incorporating a fully interactive nitrogen cycle into ESMs would close a significant gap in understanding how Earth’s climate and environment will evolve.
In two recent papers S. Kou-Giesbrecht and coauthors have highlighted the need to incorporate a complete and interactive nitrogen cycle into ESMs. She claims that without all these data incorporated, climate predictions will be less accurate. In addition, it would improve efforts to help manage nitrogen waste more sustainably. This development would be important progress toward the goals set forth in the Colombo Declaration on Sustainable Nitrogen Management.
“Global climate models need the nitrogen cycle—all of it.” – phys.org
By adding sophisticated, mechanistic representations of nitrogen cycling, modelers could increase their predictive power about nitrogen’s impacts. Combined, this will empower better research on the impacts of climate change and environmental degradation.
Impacts of Halving Nitrogen Waste
Reducing nitrogen waste in the U.S. by half by 2030 could produce extensive economic, health, and environmental benefits. With lower nitrogen concentrations, biodiversity may be restored when ecosystems are released from the intensive pressure of nutrient pollution. Food security could be improved by adopting more sustainable agricultural techniques that need less synthetic fertilizers.
Public health is another major pillar that would gain from less nitrogen waste. Reducing nitrogen pollution into waterways will lead to cleaner drinking water supplies. This investment deeply protects communities from the health threats associated with harmful algal blooms. On September 16, 2021, the Copernicus Sentinel-2 satellites show a large algal bloom in Nevada’s Pyramid Lake. We determined that this bloom was directly or indirectly caused by nitrogen pollution in the water.
“This image, acquired by one of the Copernicus Sentinel-2 satellites on 16 September 2021, shows an ongoing massive algal bloom in Nevada’s Pyramid Lake. Such blooms can be caused by excess nitrogen levels in water.” – European Union, Copernicus Sentinel-2 imagery
Moving Forward with Sustainable Practices
The inclusion of a fully interactive nitrogen cycle within ESMs is an exciting move towards more realistic and hence less biased climate predictions. Climate scientists are excited that this new system will greatly improve our predictions about climate change. Ultimately, it will provide the foundation for developing effective policies consistent with sustainable nitrogen stewardship.
As nations strive to meet the targets set forth in the Colombo Declaration, understanding and managing the nitrogen cycle becomes increasingly vital. Here’s how federal policymakers can begin to address this important component of our environmental science. In doing so, they will usher in a future rich with economic savings, improved biodiversity, food security and public health from sustainable agriculture.