A little over a decade since 197 countries signed the Paris Agreement, the international treaty has made tangible strides to combat climate change. Experts warn that this progress is not enough to offset the impact of economic development. The Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015, aims to cut greenhouse gas emissions and limit global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius by 2100, with a more ambitious goal of capping it at 1.5 degrees.
This treaty sparked a concerted effort among nations to prioritize renewable energy, reduce waste, and enhance tracking of environmental impact. Even after 2015, most member nations voluntarily pledged to a 15-year plan to cut their emissions, although the plans fall short in some cases.
Progress and Challenges Since 2015
Since we first adopted the Paris Agreement, we’ve made some major progress. Without these contributions, the world would be far less able to avoid more than 2 degrees Celsius of global warming. Based on new analysis and modeling, this likelihood has increased from just 5% in 2015 to about 17% today. This encouraging development is the result of a few major factors. Most remarkably of all, carbon intensity is now falling at an annualized rate of 3.1%, up from a virtually identical 1.1% rate before the deal was inked.
Despite these gains, the threat of “the most catastrophic climate change,” where temperatures could increase by 3 degrees or more, has significantly decreased as well. This has fallen from 26% in 2015 to 9% now. Experts urge caution. Adrian Raftery, a leading researcher in climate science, points out that even with current efforts, the results fall short of what is necessary.
“One of the key findings from that work was that basically, it’s not going to be enough,” – Adrian Raftery.
Even if every one of those countries actually achieved their ambitious goals under the agreement, the world would still be in a pretty tough spot, Raftery said. There’s just a 5 percent chance of holding global warming under the dangerous 2-degree threshold. This highlights the urgent need to accelerate and strengthen existing financial strategies and commitments.
The Role of Major Economies
Actual emissions reduction efforts made under the Paris Agreement have been widely inconsistent between countries — especially between the big four global economies. The United States has newly committed to rejoining the agreement. Its climate plan commits it to reducing greenhouse emissions by 60 percent from peak levels by the year 2035. Even still, this commitment is an important sign of progress from one of the world’s most prolific greenhouse gas emitters.
Indeed, industrializing China’s carbon intensity is currently just under three times as high as Germany’s. This is huge, given Germany is the European Union’s economic powerhouse and largest member-state. Additionally, U.S. carbon intensity is 2 times greater than Germany’s right now. These disparities highlight the ongoing challenges that major economies face in balancing economic growth with environmental responsibility.
“China and the U.S. have the biggest economies and are among the most wasteful countries,” – Adrian Raftery.
The varying levels of commitment from nations like China and the U.S. raise critical questions about global accountability and the need for collaborative efforts in curbing emissions.
Future Outlook and Recommendations
Looking forward, experts contend that building on this momentum will be necessary in order to make meaningful progress toward long-term climate targets. We have the collective power to make this happen if each country commits to raise their emissions reduction target by a mere 1.8% annually. By continuing this work past 2030, when the Paris Agreement runs out, we have the opportunity to stay under 1.5 degrees.
Moreover, he was adamant that bigger things were required. We need to do more to offset new economic development that could potentially reverse these emissions reductions. Unfortunately, no matter how ambitious they may act, there is still a huge chasm between their existing policies and what’s required to make real change.
“The fact that the Paris Agreement did work in reducing at least [carbon] intensity is good news,” – Adrian Raftery.
However, he emphasized that larger efforts must be made to counterbalance economic growth that threatens to offset these emissions reductions. There remains a significant gap between current policies and what is needed to effect meaningful change.
“There need to be bigger efforts made to offset economic growth, but there is reason for hope,” – Adrian Raftery.