Ignoring the prices that American consumers face, avocado prices in Australia are swinging wildly. This domino effect has raised red flags with growers and consumers alike. In the last ten years, avocado production in Australia has exploded. It expanded by a factor of over three from 48,715 tonnes in 2013-14 to an anticipated 150,913 tonnes in 2023-24. In the same time, avocado export value went from $5.6 million to a remarkable $96.1 million. Even in the face of this explosive growth, the industry is hurting because of the unpredictable nature of yield and market demand.
The Hass variety is the preferred avocado variety for Australian consumers. It constitutes a remarkable 82% of the country’s avocado production so far this season. The Hass avocado is famous for its creamy taste and long shelf life. Its distinctive ripening cycle, characterized by the gradual darkening of its skin, has earned it a place in kitchens across the country. The long harvest season begins in North and Central Queensland. The story goes through the boom and bust tri-state region and finally returns to coastal Western Australia, bringing even more intricacy and complication to the industry.
Production Challenges and Market Volatility
Though the story told by the record increases in production and export value is rosy, that’s not the whole picture and it’s actually a misleading one. Avocado trees tend to produce in alternating years of high production and low production. Such fluctuations can have a powerful impact on the bottom line for growers. Dr. Harley Smith, a senior research scientist at CSIRO, describes the avocado tree as a “wild” species that is challenging to manage effectively.
“There’s nothing more heartbreaking than going into an orchard and seeing piles of avocados rotting because it would actually cost a grower more money to take the fruit to the market,” – Harley.
The challenges do not end there. Climate change, resource constraints and rising economic costs are putting immense pressure on the food system across Australia. This pressure is perhaps most dramatically seen in avocado production. Frequent changes in yield from season to season can create unsustainable swings in the market, hurting the farmers and the people who buy food from them.
“Production volatility results in market volatility and that’s not good for growers or consumers. Ideally, we would like to have consistent supply all year round and year on year,” – John Tyas.
Research Aims to Stabilize Production
In reaction to these pressures, CSIRO researchers are working on exciting new ways to help avocado growers weather future production shocks. Dr. Smith stresses the need for a nuanced approach. We’d have to do both the fruit and the shoots of the avocado tree simultaneously.
“That’s where we believe future research must go—targeting the fruit and shoots simultaneously to create an equilibrium that a tree can sustain from year to year. If we can find that nice balance, then that should hopefully stabilize production,” – Harley.
The research involves studying two essential hormones: auxin and ethylene. Auxin is a crucial signal for normal fruit growth and development. Ethylene plays an important role in regulating abscission, which is the process that leads to the fruit falling from the tree. Through manipulation of these hormonal processes, researchers hope to slow fruit drop and produce larger yields.
“Auxin is driver of fruit growth and development,” – Harley explained.
By keeping auxin levels high enough, researchers believe they can reduce occurrences of fruit drop. On the flip side, managing ethylene action will be crucial in stopping early fruit drop from the plant.
“In contrast, ethylene is a key regulator of abscission, the process that separates an organ, leaf, flower and fruit, from the tree. Therefore, suppressing ethylene activity will be critical to block the abscission process during fruit drop,” – Harley.
The Future of Avocado Production
The diverse and specific growing conditions around Australia create both opportunities and challenges for Australian avocado producers. As Dr. Smith explained, avocados grow all over the world in very different environments, which doesn’t allow for a one-size-fits-all approach for growers.
“It’s grown in a lot of diverse environments in Australia, and that’s part of what makes it harder to develop one-size-fits-all solutions,” – Harley.
These obstacles notwithstanding, researchers are still hopeful. They are hopeful that continued research will yield the tangible tools needed to help growers better manage production variability. By fostering a more stable supply chain, Australian avocado producers could enhance their competitiveness in both domestic and international markets.
“To be able to establish robust export markets, growers need to reduce seasonal variation yield,” – Harley.
Research can’t go into the dark ages of 2010! It would usher in a more sustainable avocado industry that producers and consumers can both feel good about. Keeping the emphasis on stabilizing production could go a long way toward smoothing out the price rollercoaster. This strategy helps keep quality avocados available year-round.