New studies recently made public show especially pronounced melting in East Antarctica that may have global repercussions on the scale of tens of feet of sea level rise. Led by Dr. Fabio Boeira Dias, the study shows that summertime melting increases where sea ice loss occurs. As warm ocean waters flow under the Antarctic ice shelves, a process called basal melting occurs. This process is dangerous, as it has the potential to be quite destabilizing for the Antarctic Ice Sheet and lead to widespread, dangerous ice loss.
In East Antarctica, the shelves lose most of their mass in summer months due to melting from below. The West Antarctic ice shelves are melting year-round. The study’s results point to two different melting patterns on opposite sides of the continent. Yet, that underscores the urgent need for documenting these differences and modeling them accurately in climate projections.
Using a cutting-edge climate model, the Whole Antarctic Ocean Model (WAOM), researchers simulated what ocean water flow would look like under the ice shelves. To do this, they looked at ocean heat content and basal melt rates. Their results indicated that summer-induced melting in East Antarctica may be at risk of collapse, greatly accelerating ice loss and raising seas.
Dr. Boeira Dias remarked, “Our study highlights missing dynamics that could enhance Antarctic ice loss in future scenarios.” He noted the need to better understand how these dynamics interact with increased warming of ocean temperatures.
The ramifications are deep. The future melting and collapse of individual ice shelves could eventually contribute several meters of global sea level rise. Dr. Adele Morrison, a co-author of the study from the Australian National University, stated, “If basal melting in East Antarctica is not properly accounted for, future sea level rise may be considerably underestimated.”
Professor Matthew England, another co-author from UNSW Sydney, added context to the urgency of the situation: “We’re seeing record-low levels of Antarctic sea ice cover in recent years, more frequent marine heat waves, and shifting seasons—these will only get worse in the future.”
The study sheds light on the fact that East Antarctica experiences seasonal melting. This process comes to a stop in winter when coastal polynyas develop along the coast, resulting in colder surface waters. Dr. Boeira Dias explained, “This process shuts down during winter, as areas of open water called coastal polynyas form near the coastline and cool the ocean surface.”
He noted that ice shelves in West Antarctica, such as Getz and Thwaites, lose mass continuously throughout the entire year. The melting then becomes self-perpetuating as warm Circumpolar Deep Water continues to pour in. He remarked, “Basal melting is a major driver of Antarctic Ice Sheet instability and ice loss.”
Given these findings, researchers stress the urgency of integrating seasonal dynamics into climate models to enhance projections and inform policy decisions aimed at protecting vulnerable regions. Dr. Morrison emphasized this need: “We urgently need to integrate these seasonal dynamics into climate models to improve projections and support informed policy decisions to protect vulnerable regions.”
The study was published in The Cryosphere with DOI: 10.5194/tc-19-5231-2025. In the course of this research, scientists have been closely tracking East Antarctica’s thaw. Yet its potential impact on global sea levels is critical and largely underreported, deserving of a deeper dive.