An unexpected flaw in Earth’s carbon cycle is revealed in a recent study. This new study, headed by geologist Andy Ridgwell of the University of California, Riverside breaks down how this flaw could actually drive the planet into an ice age. New research published this week in the journal Science reveals a critical loophole. This imperfection may lead to an overreaction in our response to anthropogenic warming. Ridgwell’s findings suggest that while the Earth’s natural mechanisms are still functioning, their performance may not be consistent, raising concerns about future climate stability.
A key finding of the research has been the understudied role of the carbon cycle as a thermostat, regulating climate from below. Ridgwell likens it to a broken air conditioning compressor. Instead, it fails to cool the home adequately and frequently overcompensates, overcooling and going past the setpoint. “Like placing the thermostat closer to the AC unit,” he explains, indicating how small changes in carbon levels can have significant impacts on global temperatures.
The Role of Human Activity
This new report highlights the importance of human activity in making climate change worse. When you look at climate change at that short range, humans are increasing warming speeds by continuing to pump more carbon dioxide (CO₂) into the atmosphere. As Ridgwell explains, one guaranteed outcome of these massive changes will be long-term cooling on Earth. Unfortunately, all this will take place far too slowly to provide a remedy to the current crisis. He stated, “We need to focus now on limiting ongoing warming. That Earth will eventually cool back down, in however wobbly a way, is not going to happen fast enough to help us out in this lifetime.”
Geological evidence suggests that previous ice ages were exceptionally severe. Second, they were able to envelop the whole Earth in miles-thick blankets of snow and ice. Ridgwell and his colleagues caution that this imperfection in the carbon cycle could accelerate the onset of the next ice age. This change could move timelines backward by tens of thousands of years.
Understanding the Carbon Cycle
Earth’s climate has actually been preserved over geologic time by this natural rock weathering system, which keeps atmospheric CO₂ levels in check. Traditionally, scientists thought this process locked away large quantities of carbon, thereby promoting cooling. Ridgwell’s research offers a contrast and new window into the extraordinary ways that Earth recycles its carbon.
In their paper, Ridgwell and his collaborators detail how computer simulations depict the evolution of Earth’s climate over one million years following a sudden release of CO₂ into the atmosphere. The researchers’ findings, published in the journal Global Change Biology, found that increasing temperatures make rocks weather faster. As these materials degrade, they sequester increasing amounts of CO₂, thus indirectly cooling the planet. “As the planet gets hotter, rocks weather faster and take up more CO₂, cooling the planet back down again,” Ridgwell explained.
Implications for Future Climate
The implications of this research are profound. If Earth’s carbon cycle continues to operate in its faulty mode, it can launch extreme evil climatic changes. These changes could happen a lot faster than we think. For Ridgwell, it’s not just the start of the next ice age that’s at stake, but its timing as well. He poses an important question: “At the end of the day, does it matter much if the start of the next ice age is 50, 100, or 200 thousand years into the future?”
The researchers’ key findings underscore the necessity of both near-term and long-term efforts to limit greenhouse gas emissions. It’s essential for policymakers and scientists to understand these processes. This knowledge is the baseline as they plan and implement solutions to adapt to and reduce climate change. The study underscores the need to act preventatively today. Natural cycles will eventually bring the balance back, but we are running out of time to prevent serious and perhaps irreversible damages to climates worldwide.