The Paris Agreement, negotiated in late 2015, was celebrated as a historic framework for the international community’s collective efforts to combat climate change. The centerpiece commitment of the Agreement is to work to hold the increase in global average temperature to “well below 2°C.” It further attempts to limit warming to no more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. While the world marks the tenth anniversary of this landmark agreement, some of the largest polluting nations are dragging their heels on their promises. At the same time, the international climate temperature has passed the important 1.5°C limit this year, in 2024.
For the purpose of addressing what we face today, these developments pose acute, rippling questions about whether the Paris Agreement will suffice to curb climate change. Although there has been impressive progress in climate and energy commitments around the world, the space between pledges and implementation continues to be shockingly wide. The United States is the second-largest emitter of greenhouse gases worldwide. Its leadership has been inconsistent, particularly when former President Donald Trump pulled the country out of the Paris Agreement—by some measures—twice.
The Growing Temperature Crisis
2024 would be a historic tipping point, as it would have the first annual average temperature above 1.5°C. This alarming statistic indicates that the long-term target set by the Paris Agreement is at risk of being breached within a few years, according to scientists. Johan Rockstrom, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, emphasized the gravity of the situation during a recent address at the UN in New York.
“We must admit failure, failure to protect peoples and nations from unmanageable impacts of human-induced climate change,” – Johan Rockstrom.
Even before the Paris Agreement was adopted, forecasts predicted up to 5°C of warming. This worst case scenario could happen by the end of this century. Due to the massive efforts from every continent, this path has been tempered to a projected 3°C increase. Despite this progress, experts continue to sound the alarm that reliance on fossil fuels erodes all of these successes. Countries, including the United States, plan to extract more coal, oil, and gas despite a UN climate agreement in 2023 advocating for a transition away from fossil fuels.
The Broader Goals of the Paris Agreement
Though temperature restrictions are important, the Paris Agreement includes far more than climate goals. Most importantly, it aims to address the root causes of climate change by lowering greenhouse gas emissions and increasing communities’ climate resilience. The accord has had an immense impact on international policy and action aimed at turning the tide on climate change.
Tuvalu’s climate minister, Maina Talia, recently underscored the importance of the accord. She focused on its implications for small island countries who are facing existential threats from rising sea levels. These countries are often the ones most impacted by climate change, despite having contributed very little to greenhouse gas emissions.
“I don’t think there’s any other way to address a threat to humanity as big as this is,” – Patricia Espinosa.
Just last week, the International Court of Justice affirmed that states have legal obligations to act on climate. This ruling was partially grounded in concepts developed in the Paris Agreement. This acknowledgment establishes the need for all countries to raise their ambition and make real progress on combating climate change.
Moving Forward: Action Required
As the COP30 UN climate summit approaches in Brazil, the challenge remains: how to transform promises into tangible actions. The urgency is real. As NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad opined, every day that passes without action will worsen the effects of climate change.
Much of the new technology we need to fight climate change already exists, but it needs to be deployed in the right way, said Johan Rockstrom. Moreover, he argued that now is the moment to remove barriers keeping these solutions from being used widely.
“We now have these new technologies. Let’s clear the path.” – Bond.
The upcoming summit offers an opportunity for nations to reaffirm their commitments and explore collaborative strategies for effective implementation of the Paris Agreement. It’s now up to all stakeholders to acknowledge that they need to act with urgency. If they don’t act boldly, future generations will suffer the federal government’s broken promises.