Uncertainty Surrounds Golden Dome Initiative in Missile Defense

In response, the Trump administration started the Golden Dome initiative to develop a next-generation missile defense system. Industry experts cast doubt on whether it can fly. General Michael Guetlein, the space force’s second-in-command, is personally in charge of this ambitious program. The effort is backed by a $151 billion multi-year contract, SHIELD. The contract will…

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Uncertainty Surrounds Golden Dome Initiative in Missile Defense

In response, the Trump administration started the Golden Dome initiative to develop a next-generation missile defense system. Industry experts cast doubt on whether it can fly. General Michael Guetlein, the space force’s second-in-command, is personally in charge of this ambitious program. The effort is backed by a $151 billion multi-year contract, SHIELD. The contract will serve as the basis for the Scalable Homeland Enterprise Layered Defense program. It’s trying to get the best deal on the technology that will power their Golden Dome system.

To that end, the SHIELD contract—which covers 10 years—provides a streamlined process for obtaining innovative technologies that are critical to the development of missile defense. The last RFP of this HUD initiative will likely be released in Q4 2025. In order to receive contracts through the Golden Dome program, companies need to demonstrate certain qualifications. These qualifications are detailed under the SHIELD umbrella program.

The road to competing for contracts through this new initiative is fraught with unknowns. William Greenwalt, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, questions whether non-traditional vendors will be successful in trying to break into the program. He thinks they have a very small chance. His concerns highlight the challenges that innovative startups may face in navigating government procurement processes.

“I am not overwhelmed by the prospects for non-traditionals to gain anything at all from this,” – William Greenwalt

Greenwalt is particularly passionate about advocating for a new path forward on the Golden Dome initiative. He recommends carrying it out under an Other Transaction Authority (OTA) framework. This approach provides the Department of Defense (DOD) greater latitude to work with vendors outside of the traditional space. It further allows for funding of prototypes and increases the likelihood of follow-on production opportunities.

He further elaborates on his perspective, stating, “A CICA IDIQ contract is about the dumbest way to do this if you want innovation as it will preclude non-traditionals from bidding. This should be done as an OTA — plain and simple.”

Though Bryce Dabbs, CEO of Approach Venture, approaches Greenwalt’s concerns with his deeply rooted skepticism, he too is cautiously optimistic about non-traditional vendors’ entry. He predicts 5-10% of the total contract can go towards these cutting-edge companies.

“They may not fully understand how government procurement or larger contracts work,” – Bryce Dabbs

Although these challenges may appear daunting, there are non-traditional vendors out there who can join the Golden Dome initiative through specialized teaming and subcontracting arrangements. This framework allows smaller companies to create a joint venture with larger, more established defense contractors. In turn, they can substantially increase their ability to win contracts.

Getting access to the $151 billion SHIELD vehicle doesn’t automatically bring home federal dollars. Companies will continue to experience fierce competition for contracting work on each task order. Both startups and established defense contractors are looking to get a piece of this competitive action. They too have their eyes on making their mark in what could become a highly lucrative concession contract.

As the SHIELD initiative embarks, it’s a time of great hope and great fear. In the right environment, innovation and collaboration can flourish. Yet the intricacies of government contracts quickly prevent most non-traditional vendors from getting very far.