The development of the humanoid robotics sector is currently undergoing a boom with unprecedented levels of investment, interest and hype. Yet, others remain skeptical as to whether the technology is prepared for primetime. In September, Figure — another major player in the humanoid market — was valued at $39 billion during a private fundraising round. Industry experts, including Rodney Brooks, have expressed grave concern. They have concerns about the overall feasibility and safety of humanoids, particularly in regards to integrating into spaces occupied by humans.
Sanja Fidler, Vice President of AI research at Nvidia, on anticipating humanoid robots. It sounds a lot like the hype we experienced during the first wave of self-driving cars. The timeline for significant advancements in humanoid technology remains uncertain, posing challenges for venture capitalists who seek timely returns on their investments.
Investment and Valuation Surge
Figure’s high-profile recent valuation is further evidence of the growing financial support available to humanoid robotics. The company has been making waves with its ambitious plans to create superhuman humanoids. Yet, it faces heavy criticism for the true count of robots they’ve actually rolled out in real-world applications.
Brooks worries about the billions of dollars pouring into humanoid robot companies such as Figure. In this new and fast-developing world, he insists that we add a huge dose of caution. He believes that humanoids will be an eventual outcome. He cautions that the current investment climate might be inflating a bubble that will pop if technological advances don’t deliver on their promise.
“I mean, look at self-driving cars, in 2017 and 2016, I mean it felt tangible, right?” – Sanja Fidler
Fidler points out that even with all of the investments made in self-driving technology, it took years before we started seeing results. The challenges that come with realizing the potential of autonomous systems are profound and go well beyond just money.
Safety Concerns and Market Readiness
As more and more funding flows into the humanoid sector, experts are raising eyebrows not only about long-term viability but safety as well. Fady Saad, general partner, Cybernetix Ventures doesn’t think humanoids have much market potential beyond niche uses such as space exploration. His main concern is with the safety, especially if humanoids are working in environments where humans are also present.
“If this thing falls on pets or kids, it will hurt them.” – Fady Saad
The societal consequences of bringing humanoids into daily life deserve extensive discussion. Enterprising humanoid-robot companies such as K-Scale Labs and Hugging Face have pre-orders and sales already in the hundreds of millions of dollars. Yet market acceptance on a broader scale is still in question.
Brooks has repeatedly called on investors to be careful. He cautions that the buzz around humanoids could deceive us into thinking practical applications are just around the corner. The timeline for achieving true, practical humanoid robots that could move about safely in close proximity to people remains a mystery.
Technological Challenges Ahead
As for the technical hurdles, they are substantial. Seth Winterroth, a partner at Eclipse, emphasizes the skill involved in designing robots that can make advanced, agile movements. The challenge is not just programming these machines, but making them safe and reliable.
“It’s difficult to do software releases to six degrees of freedom systems, what we’re talking about with some of these humanoids is 60 plus degrees of freedom systems.” – Seth Winterroth
Nvidia, for example, is all in, pledging resources to these humanoid companies. They’re providing the infrastructure they need to support these companies in accelerating their technologies. The company’s involvement signals a belief in the potential of humanoids while recognizing the need for a solid foundation to foster growth.
Tesla initially made waves in the humanoid robotics field with the announcement of the Optimus bot back in 2021. They expect to formally unveil it in 2023 and begin commercial sales by 2026. Though appearances at gatherings such as the “We, Robot” conference featured human operators toting the bots around on leashes. This demonstrated the depth of the chasm that exists between ambition and reality.