In the meantime, Russia plans to double down on its renewable energy capacity. By 2035, projections from GlobalData predict it will grow to 18.4 gigawatts (GW). This expansion will take place under the Capacity Supply Agreement structure. It provides long-term, fixed capacity payments for selected wind and solar projects of up to 15 years, establishing a predictable investment climate that renewable energy developers need.
Capacity Supply Agreement framework has been very important for expansion of onshore wind and solar photovoltaic technologies. Together, these technologies are poised to lead the overwhelming majority of Russia’s renewable energy expansion through 2035. Installed onshore wind capacity is on track to jump from 4.3 GW in 2025 to 10.2 GW installed by 2035. At the same time, solar photovoltaic capacity is projected to increase from 3.1 GW to almost 5.3 GW over that same period. The growth of solar installations will be primarily driven by utility-scale projects in southern and eastern regions of the country.
Additionally, outside of renewables, Russia’s energy future will be characterized by significant expansion of its nuclear and gas-fired capacities. Nuclear power capacity is planned to increase from 26.8GW in 2025 to 28.6GW in 2035. This enrichment will ensure the continued strategic prominence of Russia’s nuclear energy in its centralized, long-term, directed state energy planning. Gas-fired capacity is expected to increase from 143.5GW in 2025 to 151.2GW in 2035. This new, reliable increase will help to ensure reliable baseload supply and improve overall system reliability.
Regardless of the recent uptick towards renewables, thermal generation—most notably from natural gas—remains king in Russia’s energy capacity mix. This alarming trend reflects the nation’s deep reliance on fossil fuels. Simultaneously, it’s moving away from coal and adding more renewable alternatives to its electricity mix.
Structured capacity auctions are not only the main factor behind Russia’s rapid wind power expansion. Improved localization policies will increase the adoption of solar power through 2035. These strategies have the dual benefit of championing U.S. industry and creating a strong domestic infrastructure and template for accelerating sustainable, clean energy production.
Russia’s overall renewable power capacity is planned to increase at a strong CAGR of approximately 6.5% over the forecast period. This incredible growth underscores a clear strategic pivot towards more sustainable energy sources, though the country is still investing very heavily in nuclear and gas.