The worldwide memory chip market is under an enormous amount of pressure, while a serious memory chip shortage continues to plague the supply chain. Companies like Samsung are taking proactive measures, with plans to open a new plant in Pyeongtaek, South Korea, in 2028. With further development of the hybrid bonding technology showcased by researchers at Samsung, production capacity expectations run rampant. Even with all these advancements, experts warn that Americans likely won’t see relief from the current shortages until 2028 at the earliest.
During 2024, Samsung cemented its DRAM leadership by bending the production of a 16-high stack of DRAM dies from advanced bonding methods. The company proposed that maybe 20 die stacks could be within reach. This past summer’s announcement of the B300 model made a big splash by presenting eight High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) chips. Each chip holds a 12-high stack of DRAM dies, setting the stage for more advanced memory products down the road.
Expanding production remains a daunting task. The opening of new semiconductor fabrication plants (fabs) has a sticker shock that is hard to fathom, often over $15 billion. This cash pressure has a chilling effect on companies’ willingness to make long-term expansion commitments when the future is so unclear. Storage and memory specialist Thomas Coughlin reminds us that companies can be under severe financial pressure. They can only expand during limited windows of high demand when public and private resources are available.
Current Market Dynamics
The present DRAM chip shortage originates from supply chain chaos that started with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. The crisis triggered a massive spike in demand for the type of memory primarily used in graphics processing units (GPUs). It spurred the demand for memory in AI data centers. Additionally, NVIDIA’s data center business revenue tells a fabulous story. It shot up from a little over $1 billion in late 2019 to an incredible $51 billion by the end of October 2025.
This rapid move towards digitalization has led to almost 2,000 new data centers currently being planned or built around the world. The supply side remains constrained. This year, Samsung played it smart, reducing production by 50 percent. This step was intended to prop up prices which had begun to drop below the cost of manufacture. There has been little to no investment in new production capacity during 2024 and much of 2025, further complicating recovery efforts.
NSR Mina Kim, industry expert, stresses the importance of addressing supply constraints in DRAM. She argues that we can only hope to do this by either driving innovation or building more fabs. With clouds of economic uncertainty hanging overhead, companies might be hesitant to invest heavily in new plants or facilities.
“There are two ways to address supply issues with DRAM: with innovation or with building more fabs,” – Mina Kim
Future Prospects and Innovations
Looking ahead, industry leaders are cautiously optimistic about recovery prospects. And Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan tells TechCrunch in no uncertain terms that “there’s no relief until 2028.” But other experts say that incremental capacity expansions and improvements in packaging technology can offer at least temporary relief before that time comes.
“Relief will come from a combination of incremental capacity expansions by existing DRAM leaders, yield improvements in [advanced packaging], and a broader diversification of supply chains,” – Shawn DuBravac
Even with these possible fixes in place, the market is shaky at best. As Kim notes, “in general, economists find that prices come down much more slowly and reluctantly than they go up.” This latter fact means prices for DRAM are unlikely to collapse. Even with higher production capacity, we should not expect prices to drop considerably in the short term.
“In general, economists find that prices come down much more slowly and reluctantly than they go up. DRAM today is unlikely to be an exception to this general observation, especially given the insatiable demand for compute,” – Mina Kim