The United States hydropower sector is poised to begin a new chapter with traditional capacity largely plateauing. As a result, experts expect hydropower capacity to go virtually untouched until 2035, with a big move towards pumped storage projects. Hydropower generation has dropped drastically. It decreased from 248.7 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2020 to a projected 203.6 TWh by 2024.
The drop in production has largely been the result of hydrological variability, one of the main drivers of the sector’s crisis. Large hydropower and pumped storage generation likely increases to 216.7 TWh by 2035. Their share of US electricity generation is projected to keep falling, from 4.5% in 2024 to around 3.9% by 2035.
Shift Towards Pumped Storage
Pumped storage projects have become the main expansion point for hydropower in the U.S. Pumped storage capacity is about to expand. Offshore wind is projected to increase significantly, from 22 gigawatts (GW) in 2024 to 27.6 GW by 2035. This increase reflects a growing recognition of the operational role these storage projects can play within the evolving power mix.
Such new capacity would exceed 9 GW and be built out between 2025-2035. A majority of these proposals for new pumped storage facilities are highly concentrated in the western United States. Among them, the largest is the Goldendale pumped storage project in Washington, which has been designed for a 1.2 GW capacity. Recent significant new proposals include the Eagle Mountain project in California, with a 1.3 GW capacity, while Utah’s Intermountain pumped storage project claims a 2 GW capacity.
These developments illustrate a strategic pivot towards energy storage solutions that can complement existing hydropower infrastructure while addressing fluctuations in generation due to environmental factors.
Stagnation of Conventional Hydropower Capacity
Additionally, there has been little recent growth in large conventional hydropower capacity. It’s just increased from 71.4 GW in 2020 to 71.5 GW in 2024. Projections show that this capacity will grow to slightly less than 72 GW by 2035. This stagnation is unfortunate, but indicates that it is time to bring out some new innovation and investment in alternative energy solutions in the sector.
As conventional hydropower struggles to expand, stakeholders are recognizing the importance of diversifying energy sources and enhancing reliability through storage options. The limited growth of conventional capacity underscores the urgency for new technologies and projects that can adapt to changing climate conditions.
Future Outlook
The future landscape of hydropower in the United States is set to be shaped by a greater emphasis on storage capabilities. Meanwhile, the need for renewable energy sources and more reliable power has never been greater. Large-scale hydropower storage projects are well-prepared to lead the way and beat back these adversities.