Mexico is set to experience a PV boom. It’s projected to grow from about 12.4 gigawatts (GW) in 2024 to a whopping 37.8 GW by 2035. Central to this growth is the country’s long-term planning initiative, PLADESE 2025–2039. Meanwhile, tougher Clean Energy Certificate standards increase the incentive to develop renewable energy resources. Currently, President Claudia Sheinbaum is overseeing a massive structural realignment in Mexico’s power sector. This new model of governance emphasizes environmental stewardship and the pursuit of energy independence.
This very large increase in solar capacity represents an impressive compound annual growth rate of approximately 10.7% over the entire forecast period. Mexico’s plentiful solar resources are driving this trend. Cities and pockets of industry are quickly accelerating their distributed generation expansion. As a result, the country is better positioned to meet the rising electricity demands from various sectors, including industry and manufacturing.
Along with solar, wind power is set to be a major pillar in the future of Mexico’s renewable energy sector. Combined, these renewable sources are expected to make up all but one percent of clean capacity additions in the next few years. Mexico’s power sector is changing quickly. It depends on increasing electricity demand, a reinvigorated push for regulatory reforms, and a heightened emphasis on energy sovereignty.
Natural gas is still at the very center of Mexico’s energy policy. Gas-fired capacity is forecast to increase from 52.7 GW in 2024 to 64 GW by 2035. This increase underscores the critical role natural gas plays in ensuring system reliability and affordability as the nation transitions towards more renewable energy sources. Natural gas will continue to be the primary balancing fuel through 2035. It’ll ensure high levels of solar and wind power can be seamlessly integrated while maintaining grid stability.
The synergy between renewable expansion and gas-based generation is essential for balancing the electricity system, especially as demand continues to rise. Continued alignment between policy frameworks, infrastructure investment, and capacity planning will be vital in maintaining energy security while fostering low-carbon electricity growth through 2035.
Tightening Clean Energy Certificate rules is essential for steering new clean capacity builds in the right direction in Mexico. Additional relieving eligibility criteria amendments double down on this positive trend. The government clearly intends to push forward on its pro-renewables agenda regardless through these regulatory changes. They’re making sure that this transition is consistent with national energy objectives.