Global coal production peaks at 9333.3 Mt in 2025. This represents a slight increase of 1.2% against last year. Major coal-producing countries are especially key to this expansion. In particular, China, India, Indonesia, the United States, Russia, and Australia contribute large amounts. Combined, these countries already made up an astounding 88.4% of the entire global coal production in 2024.
Domestically in China, coal production has continued to increase steadily. By the end of the first ten months of 2023, the country had achieved a year-on-year growth rate of 1.5%. According to forecasts, this positive trajectory won’t let up even in 2025. In contrast, production is likely to increase by 2.7% to a total of 4,910.3 Mt. Shaanxi province will ride out their revenue problems in 2024. As a result, China is on track to retake the title of the world’s biggest producer of coal.
India is playing a gigantic role in the bizarre breakout of marginal growth in global coal production. The country’s strong output, combined with accelerating production growth in China, are driving overall numbers up. The reality in Indonesia and the United States could not be more different. Fast forward to 2026, where both countries continue to grapple with a severe regional oversupply. This dynamic is sure to cascade price pressure down the whole coal value chain.
The new outlook for global coal production is complicated. Although these increases are on the books through 2025, experts do expect to see a slowdown in this growth by 2026. China’s coal production is predicted to fall this year. This would result in a dramatic transformation of the nature of competition in global markets. Even with these forecasts, modest growth in worldwide output is still anticipated in 2026.
China, India, Indonesia, the US, Russia and Australia make up around 80% of the coal market. To understand their influence is to acknowledge the paradox these levels represent between national production and local market forces. Their combined actions influence not only their home economies but the development of energy strategies around the globe.