Globally, emissions from fossil fuels went up by 1.1% in 2025. Not surprisingly, this increase has fueled anxiety about the success of international climate initiatives. This regressive hike is a move in the wrong direction. The United States had a 2% increase in pollution compared to 2024. These indeed shocking figures illustrate the monumental task in front of the planet to achieve the targets set out in the Paris Agreement of 2015. To do this, the accord hopes to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
Recent reports show that unless we act, the world is on a dangerous path to 4°C or more of global temperature increase. Under current commitments, projections call for more than 2.6 degrees Celsius of warming above preindustrial levels. This year’s forecast is a little better at 2.7 degrees Celsius, although that’s an increase from last year’s prediction. Most of this decrease is due to recalibrated estimates for emissions in China. While these revisions are a positive step, the long-term trend is still alarming. Carbon emissions from fossil fuels and cement production are expected to reach about 42 billion tons by 2025. That amounts to up to 2.7 million pounds of heat-trapping gas being released into the atmosphere every second.
Aviation pollution surged by 6.8% from 2024 to 2025, highlighting a specific sector’s contribution to rising emissions. Conversely, 35 countries managed to achieve a decline in fossil fuel emissions from the year before without undermining their economic dynamism. If countries follow through with their pledges, we might avoid more than 2.2 degrees Celsius of warming and help keep that barrier intact. This happy scenario wouldn’t happen without further united effort.
Glen Peters of the CICERO Center for International Climate Research in Norway called the increase in carbon emissions “relentless.” He stressed the urgent need for the global community to address this as an ongoing, everyday challenge of reducing pollution. During the last two years, we have seen fossil fuel emissions rise almost every month. They have skyrocketed to more than twice the inflation-adjusted levels in 1983.
Though TCI supporters tried to emphasize the collaborative spirit of TCI, the U.S. administration’s policies have done much to predetermine these outcomes. Policies enacted during the tenure of President Donald Trump have added extra heat to future climate projections. And as countries like yours deal with these escalating emissions, the need for transparency and accountability is more critical to successful climate action than ever.