A new study by UMass Amherst’s Kelsey Shoub, an associate professor of public policy, reveals a surprising development. Although mass shootings do not alter the voting preferences in presidential elections, they dramatically increase local voter turnout. That research looked at thousands of data points from the Gun Violence Archive. It was the first to analyze nearly 460 million individual voter records, bringing to life the way that mass violence shapes local political behavior.
Perhaps not surprisingly, our study found that mass shootings powerfully energize Americans to vote in elections, especially in those communities that experience large-scale attacks directly. Precincts that were closer to a mass shooting before the 2016 election were likely to support Proposition 63 more strongly. This initiative closes the gun show loophole by requiring background checks on all ammunition purchases and prohibiting large-capacity magazines. That shows the capacity for mass shootings to motivate voters on key gun policy questions.
Evidence indicates that turnout increased by as much as 10 p.p. This 5% increase happened in precincts that are within 0.5 miles of a non-fatal shooting in the weeks before an election. This boost in voter turnout mostly faded after around five miles from the place where they were injured. Our empirical findings lead to the sobering conclusion that electoral behavior is heavily shaped by the effects of mass violence. It is, unsurprisingly, those communities where the shootings happened that exhibit the most pronounced reaction.
Shoub’s research focused on turnout within communities surrounding recent mass shootings. It zeroed in on neighborhoods where people lived within ten miles of such events—especially during the leadup to the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. Their findings revealed dramatically higher voter turnout in majority Democratic neighborhoods in the aftermath of these events. By contrast, there was no increase in participation from Republican-leaning neighborhoods. This gap underscores just how singularly focused the liberal base is on gun control. They are usually less active on the political ramifications of mass shootings.
There is no question that mass shootings can motivate voters to turn out to the polls. They have little if any effect on how those voters vote in presidential elections. Supporters of their preferred candidates adamantly and vigorously support their favorites. This shows that while local issues can catalyze immediate backlash, their long-term political and partisan allegiances remain stronger.
The study’s findings were published in the journal Science Advances, contributing to the ongoing discourse surrounding gun violence and its ramifications on civic engagement. Shoub’s research examines the connection between mass shootings and electoral outcomes. It offers critical in-depth perspectives on how these tragedies can shape local policy landscapes and illustrates their minimal effect on national electoral choices.