Despite these conservation efforts, a recent study confirms that the Great Barrier Reef has a bleak outlook. If global emissions continue to increase, the marine wonder could lose more than 90 percent of its coral by the end of this century. The study was led by marine ecologists Professor Peter Mumby and Dr. Yves-Marie Bozec. Using a combination of advanced modeling techniques, they created projections for the future of this unique UNESCO World Heritage site.
The comprehensive research, published today in Nature Communications, underscores the exhaustive effects of climate change on coral reefs. The model was purposefully rigorous in testing everything and anything. It studied the ways that single corals acclimatize to elevated water temperatures, studied the large-scale dynamics of reefs themselves, and studied the relationships between coral and oceanic currents. These results underscore a disturbingly swift pattern of coral decline. Even under the most optimistic emissions scenario, this decline is projected to happen before the middle of this century.
As Professor Mumby pointed out, how fast global warming continues to increase matters immensely when it comes to the fate of the reef. “Reducing global emissions and addressing local stressors can still make a difference,” he stated. The study finds that adaptation will be impossible unless global warming stays below 2 degrees Celsius by 2100.
Dr. Bozec ran comprehensive climate projections within the model and found that many reefs might persist if global efforts align with the targets set by the Paris Agreement. He noted, “We saw that many reefs could persist under the Paris Agreement target of 2 degrees of warming.” He warned the scenario of increased emissions resulting in the fastest temperature increases would carry the majority of reefs to a state of near collapse.
“The window for meaningful action is closing rapidly but it hasn’t shut,” – Dr. Bozec
Even with these bleak forecasts looming, all is not lost. According to Dr. Bozec, corals may partially recover if ocean warming is gradual enough to allow natural adaptation to keep pace with temperature changes. He remarked, “Corals may partially recover after that, but only if ocean warming is sufficiently slow to allow natural adaptation to keep pace with temperature changes.”
When discussing their model’s findings, Professor Mumby explained that “the news was pretty grim.” He noted that reefs survived best in areas with more stable water temperature. In nearby and less vulnerable black and brown communities, residents faced deadly consequences.
The study highlights a need for immediate action. It shows that strategic management and targeted action, including interventions today, are needed to improve coral resilience across the Great Barrier Reef.
