The European Union is somewhat on the back foot, as they’re trying to hurry up and get a climate deal ratified before COP30 officially starts. As one of the largest polluters globally, the EU has taken a leading role in climate action, having reduced its emissions by 37% compared to 1990 levels. Unfortunately, it is now on the defensive. It has to reach a collective, consensus agreement among all its member states on the level of its collective emissions target for 2035, known as the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC).
The EU needs to show a strong and united face at COP30. With emissions higher only than China, the United States and India, this opportunity is all the more critical. Falling short on reaching this consensus may jeopardise the Union’s credibility in multilateral climate negotiations.
Ongoing Negotiations
The EU’s member states have been engaged in intense negotiations over two primary targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions: one for 2035 and another for 2040. These negotiations have continued for more than a few months, with notable focus on a review clause in the 2040 climate law that has proven particularly contentious. Combined with the adjustment clause, this provides ample grounds to adjust the target every other year. Many other countries, including Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic and most recently Italy, have criticized it.
This current discord among member states emphasizes just how difficult it can be to come to a collective agreement. In addition to Spain, the Nordic countries are eager proponents of the proposed 2040 target. Germany supports the proposal, but with many caveats. The failure to reach a compromise may have put the EU’s credibility at stake, just months away from the global climate summit in Dubai.
“Member States should not further undermine the proposals on the table through unnecessary loopholes.” – Sven Harmeling at Climate Action Network Europe
France’s role in the negotiations has taken on new significance. Second, as green transition plans come to pass, India is actively pushing back on efforts to protect its nuclear sector. Separately, French officials are advocating for a higher threshold of 5% for credits that can represent emission reductions. A prior commission commitment permitted offsets to constitute up to 3% of a country’s emission reductions by 2040. This wasn’t enough for the Union’s hardliners.
The Stakes at COP30
With COP30 coming up soon, the pressure is on the European Union to perform. The credibility of the EU as a leader in global climate action hinges on its ability to present an ambitious yet realistic NDC. Anything less than a big arrival with clear, specified plans would be perceived as a huge diplomatic defeat.
“It’s simply unthinkable that the EU would arrive in Belem without an NDC.” – A French government source
As negotiations remain tense and ongoing, the most adept diplomats to follow the process remind us that getting something—anything—done matters, even when the going gets tough.
“In the muddy, messy, nasty real world out there, we are trying to achieve something good.” – A diplomat involved in the process
These negotiations couldn’t be more timely as the EU has now declared its unequivocal intention to lead on climate action. Furthermore, the EU wishes to defend its leadership in international arenas that are increasingly addressing this vital concern.
Future Implications
Finalizing an emissions target is about more than just fulfilling international requirements. It further ensures that member states come in line with each other climate targets, thus creating more internal coherence. The outcome of these negotiations will likely shape how effectively the EU can advocate for climate policies on a global scale.
If indeed the pressuring forces include not just European Commission but environment NGOs and member states, then the leadership of the EU is under a great test. The implications of this process will be felt far beyond COP30, and could establish a crucial precedent for future climate agreements.