A new academic overview has looked at the global transition to plant-based diets. It exposed very serious implications for agricultural workforce needs and expenses. Prof Michael Obersteiner, Director of the Environmental Change Institute (ECI) and research team lead, along with agricultural and food economist Dr Yiorgos Vittis. Read on to learn their surprising findings, which show how shifts in our diets could dramatically redefine agricultural employment worldwide.
To estimate a baseline of labor needs, the study calculated labor requirements for 20 food categories. It used a detailed global inventory of agricultural labor needs and a detailed biophysical food-system model at global, regional, and national scales. This research highlights that shifting to more plant-based diets can reduce global agricultural labor requirements by a third or more. By 2030, this transition would decrease labor needs by 5% to 28%, equating to the loss of approximately 18 to 106 million full-time jobs. The first and biggest impetus for this drop is the expected reduced need for livestock production.
Alongside study lead Dr. Raghavan, the study features co-authors Professor Sir Charles Godfray and Marco Springmann. Professor Sir Charles Godfray, Director of the Oxford Martin School at the University of Oxford. Our work highlights that conventional livestock production stands to lose the most alternative job opportunities. This will be more than counterbalanced by an increased need for labor in horticulture. According to the study, the horticulture industry is projected to require an additional 18 to 56 million full-time workers. This increase is necessary to ensure that we are able to produce a diversity of fruits, vegetables, legumes and other nutritious plant-based foods.
Leading forecasters expect that increased adoption of plant-based diets would reduce worldwide labor costs by about one-third. Analysts predict between $290 billion and $995 billion in savings per year, PPP adjusted. This decrease is equivalent to 0.2% to 0.6% of global GDP highlighting the large economic costs associated with dietary change.
To calculate the environmental impacts of diets, the researchers made projections about what Americans’ dietary patterns will look like by 2030. That included flexitarian, pescatarian, vegetarian and vegan growth. We evaluated these changes against baseline projections for that same year. This further emphasized the pivotal importance of proactive adaptation in the future of our agricultural community.
This new study shows that without targeted retraining programs and smart redeployment strategies that support workers, especially in long-neglected rural communities, America will pay dearly. Focusing on investments in horticultural production will be important in addressing and avoiding these impacts. Together, these initiatives help Americans affected by job losses in more established agricultural industries. Simultaneously, they drive development in new markets for alternative protein production.