It’s true that the Sahara Desert is one of the driest places on the planet. The region might be on the brink of a significant upheaval to those climatic rhythms. A team of environmental engineers and urban planners from the University of Illinois Chicago (UIC) foresee a radically different future for the North African landscape. They project that by the close of the 21st century, precipitation may increase by up to 75% above historical averages. Thierry N. Taguela, a post-doctoral researcher at UIC’s Climate Research Lab, performed the analysis. He conducted his work under the supervision of Akintomide Afolayan Akinsanola to make this surprising discovery.
The Sahara Desert receives only three inches of annual rainfall. By comparison, Chicago gets more than it’s ten times that much in precipitation from rain, sleet, and snow! Taguela and his team explored climate models predictions under two different greenhouse gas emission scenarios. One scenario with moderate greenhouse gas emissions and the other with very high emissions. If right, their projections would deeply transform life in this increasingly thirsty region.
Anticipated Changes in Precipitation Patterns
According to Taguela’s analysis, the second half of the 21st century (2050–2099) will witness notable changes in summer precipitation across Africa. Rainfall in the Sahara Desert has done the opposite, rising slightly during the same period from 1965–2014. Looking forward, projections show a steep increase in this rainfall.
Taguela underscored what these changes would mean. They cautioned that changing patterns of rainfall will affect billions of lives across Africa and around the world. This increase in precipitation will have a profound influence on agriculture. It will have a dramatic impact on water resources and ecosystems across the region as well.
For example, studies indicate that the region of southeastern Africa can expect an increase in rainfall of 25%. South-central Africa is forecast to face a 17% increase. This expected change is emblematic of a larger trend that includes a continental divide in changing precipitation patterns.
Implications for Climate Adaptation Strategies
UIC’s Climate Research Lab led by Dr. Taguela underscored the need for a better understanding of the physical mechanisms driving these changes. This information is key to developing the most effective actions to adapt to changing environmental circumstances.
“Understanding the physical mechanisms driving precipitation is essential for developing adaptation strategies that can withstand both wetter and drier futures.” – Thierry Ndetatsin Taguela
This research presents not only a challenge but an opportunity for governments, communities, and organizations engaged in climate resilience. The Sahara, meanwhile, is expected to receive almost twice its historical precipitation amount. Stakeholders must begin to actively anticipate the promise and peril that accompany these dramatic climatic changes.
Future Research Directions
To get more realistic, additional research is needed to better calibrate these predictions and gauge their broader significance. These models are essential for notifying us of shifts in climate patterns. More studies are needed to confirm these predictions and test their accuracy as the world’s climate realities continue to change.
Taguela remarked on this surprising shift for such a climatologically dry region: “The Sahara is projected to almost double its historical precipitation levels, which is surprising for such a climatologically dry region.” Climate change is a pretty complicated thing. It has the capacity to severely alter environments that have remained unchanged for millennia.