This year’s report shows the concerning trends of increasing marine heat waves, according to a recent study from Communications Earth & Environment. It underscores that the extreme heat wave that blanketed much of the U.S. in June 2023 represents a new normal. Researchers have previously cautioned that the accelerating pace of climate change is increasing the likelihood of intense marine heat waves. In any given year, there is only a 10% chance that these scenarios will play out.
Dr. Jamie Atkins who led the study while completing his Ph.D. at Exeter, and is now based at Utrecht University. He noted how the marine heat wave destroyed fundamental ecosystems, such as coral reefs, and specifically affected phytoplankton blooms. These blooms support valuable marine food webs and play an important role in creating vibrant, productive ocean ecosystems.
Unprecedented Heat Wave Events
The shallow waters surrounding the UK, from the North Sea to Celtic Sea, experienced dramatic temperature increases in June 2023. During those 16 days, temperatures reached an average of 2.9°C higher than the average June daily temperature. While temperatures continue to escalate, so should scientists’ alarm. They’re concerned for the future of our marine ecosystems and their capacity to cope with such sudden climate stresses.
Even across the globe, the research found a stunningly high rise in the probability of impacting marine heat waves. Much has changed in the last few decades. In the Celtic Sea, the annual likelihood of this occurrence increased from 3.8% in 1993 to 13.8% today. Likewise, the deep central North Sea went from having a statistically insignificant risk of 0.7% chance in 1993 to 9.8% today.
“Our findings show that marine heat waves are a problem now—not just a risk from future climate change,” – Dr. Jamie Atkins
The consequences of these marine heat waves reach far beyond oceanic ecosystems. The researchers found a compelling connection between elevated ocean temperatures and unprecedented land surface temperatures. It indicates that increasing marine heat can have major impacts on atmospheric conditions.
Climate Change and Its Impacts
Professor Adam Scaife is the Head of Long Range Forecasting at the UK’s Met Office. As a co-author of the study, Greg Cahill spoke to the environmental dangers of this accelerating climate change. He stated, “This is another example of how steady climate warming is leading to an exponential increase in the occurrence of extreme events.”
The vision and research team really went for a holistic approach. To do this, they drove hundreds of climate model simulations to assess the likelihood that marine heat waves could reach extremes seen in June 2023. Their results demonstrate the substantial link between marine and terrestrial climate. As a result, the warmer seas off the coast create an increased heat source that raises land surface temperatures even more intensely.
“Additionally, warmer air carries more moisture—and when that cools it leads to increased rainfall.” – Dr. Atkins
This interrelationship between sea temperatures and terrestrial weather patterns highlights the need for urgent action to address climate change impacts.
Future Research Directions
The study calls for further research to better understand the impacts of marine heat waves on European North-West shelf seas. The authors argue that additional data and analysis are imperative for crafting the strongest strategies needed to overcome these challenges.
Creating an accessible, up-to-date synapse as marine ecosystems experience any first times pressures through climate change, awareness to the public has increased. The June 2023 marine heat wave has placed European marine phenomena firmly in the public consciousness, prompting discussions about environmental conservation and climate action.