A recent report highlights a significant contradiction between global climate commitments and the fossil fuel production plans of major nations. The Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), Climate Analytics, and the International Institute for Sustainable Development have uncovered an alarming finding. Of the 20 largest fossil-fuel producing nations, they discovered that 17 have plans to increase their production by 2030. This trend should be alarming to anyone who cares about actually meeting our international climate commitments. Continued deliberations over the loopholes in the Paris Agreement have only heightened that urgency.
The report emphasizes that the collective fossil fuel production projected for 2030 exceeds levels necessary to meet the climate targets set by the Paris Agreement. Meanwhile, the expected output of coal, oil and gas would blow past the 1.5°C target by more than 120%. Furthermore, it will be 77% over the 2°C target. The results show a troubling pattern. Countries such as the United States, Saudi Arabia and Russia—some of the world’s largest fossil fuel producers—are increasing their production compared to plans made only two years ago.
Growing Discrepancy in Climate Goals
Closer look reveals a dangerous gap between ambitious climate goals and real-world production plans. Derik Broekhoff, a co-author of the report from SEI, stated, “There continues to be a disconnect between climate ambitions and what countries are actually planning to do with fossil fuel production.” This glaring disconnect begs the question—how ambitious, really, are international pledges? Take, for example, what happened at this year’s UN COP28 in Dubai, where nations promised to “phase out” fossil fuels.
The report’s big takeaway is a paradox. Ramping up fossil fuel production Eleven countries have made plans to produce more of at least one fossil fuel in 2030 – a direct violation of their 2021 pledges. This trend contradicts the global consensus on the urgent need to reduce reliance on fossil fuels to mitigate climate change. Demand for natural gas increased overnight. At the same time, China’s expected coal peak has gone into reverse, illustrating that in some countries, officials remain focused on fossil fuel production rather than climate progress.
Implications for Future Emissions
As we see in the report’s key findings, these findings highlight the essentiality of urgent action to address fossil fuel production. It states that governments “must commit to reversing the continued expansion of global fossil fuel production.” Governments—federal, state, and international—have collectively yet to do enough to stop fossil fuel production and drastically reduce global emissions. This means that future production needs to drop off even more sharply to make up for where we’re headed.
As parties to the Paris Agreement prepare for the upcoming UN COP30 summit in Brazil in November, they face mounting pressure to submit updated climate targets and detailed plans for reducing planet-heating emissions. The report points to the enormous challenges that still await. Countries need first to realize that they’ve got to reconcile their energy needs with their climate obligations.
The Path Forward
The experts caution that the prevailing trends represent a daunting and unprecedented challenge. If they do, the goals of the Paris Accord will be ever harder to achieve. Keeping global temperature increases to well below 2°C above preindustrial levels means we must act—immediately and decisively. They boosted impact assessment, a provision to implement climate-resilient development towards which the urgency for a transition has never been greater.