Academics have traded alarmist remarks about the thunderous growing effects that geomagnetic storms are having on Earth’s atmosphere. This concern is increasingly urgent as our society continues to lean heavily on technology. These storms, caused by massive eruptions of charged particles from the sun, can severely disrupt satellite operations and other technological systems. In Geophysical Research Letters, Wang et al. [2022] recently investigated the current and future response of the upper atmosphere to geomagnetic storms. These results illustrate major transformations from which far-reaching consequences may affect all areas of our planet.
So Nicholas M. Pedatella and colleagues at the University of Colorado–Boulder, in collaboration with Japan’s Kyushu University, looked to their effects. They focused on atmospheric density during a geomagnetic superstorm that occurred on May 10-11, 2024. This event exhibited an impressive sequence of coronal mass ejections. Coronal mass ejections, giant explosions of plasma on the sun’s surface, peppered Earth’s atmosphere during this period. By comparing this historical event to predictions for future storms in 2040, 2061, and 2084, researchers sought to understand how atmospheric density will evolve over time.
The Growing Challenge of Geomagnetic Storms
Geomagnetic storms are quickly becoming an existential threat to modern society. As technology continues to advance and reliance on satellite communications grows, the impacts of these storms could disrupt critical infrastructures. Chargd particles from the sun can create disturbances in Earth’s magnetic field. These variations affect everything from GPS accuracy to the stability of our power grids.
Pedatella underscored the relevance of these findings. He said knowing how atmospheric density is going to vary, especially during geomagnetic storms, is very important in order to avoid or mitigate serious disruptions that can happen. This research was an important follow up to the 2024 storm, demonstrating how large storms can drastically alter the upper atmosphere. Many areas can expect a 20% to 50% reduction in density during these types of occurrences. These changes could make satellite operations, which rely on stable atmospheric conditions, more vulnerable.
Once again, scientists emphasized that all kinds of geomagnetic storms must be examined holistically in order to determine the full extent of their potential damage. To complicate things further, the strength and number of storms can change dramatically from one period to the next in the 11-year solar cycle. This pattern significantly complicates efforts to predict future atmospheric behavior.
The Future of Atmospheric Density
As our researchers began to model the effect of both past geomagnetic storms and future storm scenarios, they found a puzzling trend with atmospheric density. Their investigation led to a sobering conclusion: carbon dioxide is predicted to increase dramatically over the next few decades. This increase would have a tremendous impact on the way that the atmosphere reacts to geomagnetic events.
The researchers warn that upcoming geomagnetic storms—which have become more common in the last few years—could create more severe impacts than those recently reported. The storm is predicted to lower atmospheric density. This change may exacerbate the risks satellites, air travel, and other technologies face from increasingly hostile conditions in the upper atmosphere. Pedatella and his co-authors are calling for additional, targeted research. They hope to get a better picture of how space weather develops and how it affects technological systems.
Understanding how atmospheric density changes over time is essential for developing strategies to protect critical infrastructures from geomagnetic storm impacts. With rapidly changing technologies, scientists need to be vigilant. To do this, they must analyze and model how space weather events affect our protective atmosphere.
Implications for Society
The implications of these findings are not just for scientific curiosity, but rather present valid societal challenges. As our reliance on technology only seems to deepen, it’s more important than ever that we all learn about the dangers geomagnetic storms can cause. Power grids, communication systems, and navigation satellites all face risks from these natural phenomena, necessitating proactive measures to safeguard against their effects.
In particular, Pedatella wanted to see more research on all types of geomagnetic storms. This research is essential for developing better integrated models that can realistically predict their land use impacts. Scientists examine these differences at each stage of the solar cycle. This allows them to identify lessons learned in order to better respond to and recover from future emergencies.