Co-authors Yuning Shi and Armen Kemanian from Penn State University recently explored this dynamic in a new study. They underscore the catastrophic impacts that a nuclear winter would have on food production around the world. The study reveals the potential for this type of event to extend well beyond a 10-year period. It would decimate harvests by two-thirds, resulting in global famine. Utilizing the Cycles agroecosystem model, the study simulated the impact of significant soot emissions and increased UV-B radiation on agriculture, revealing alarming projections for future food security.
The consequences of a regional nuclear war are horrifying and undeniable —as just one example, it would reduce global annual corn harvests by 7%. More devastatingly, a large-scale global nuclear war could cause an estimated 80% annual corn yield reduction. This decline in production raises serious concerns about food availability and stability, with the study underscoring the urgent need for preparedness in the face of potential global crises.
The Study’s Findings
To inform this study, Shi and Kemanian developed the Cycles agroecosystem model. This advanced tool allows for high-resolution, multi-year simulations of crop growth on a large scale while accounting for complex cycles of carbon and nitrogen. This modeling allowed them to understand the ramifications of billions of tons of soot added to the atmosphere from nuclear detonations. Nitrogen oxides and heat emanating from absorptive soot can rapidly destroy ozone. This wreckage greatly increases concentrations of dangerous UV-B radiation.
The study projected that damage to agriculture from increased UV-B radiation would peak six to eight years after a global war. This newly added delay makes it even harder for agricultural recovery. In the most extreme future UV-B radiation scenarios, adverse effects would increase corn production losses by a further 7%. This would result in a jaw-dropping cumulative cut of 87%.
“Recall that catastrophes of this nature can happen not just because of [nuclear war], but due to, for example, violent volcanic eruptions,” – Yuning Shi
With the model in place, the researchers simulated six distinct nuclear war scenarios with low, medium, and high injections of soot into the stratosphere. Each scenario illustrated how such conflicts could trigger a catastrophic decline in essential crop yields, emphasizing the fragility of agricultural systems under extreme climatic disruptions.
Agricultural Resilience and Adaptation
Shi and Kemanian’s research paints a picture of what is needed. They argue it is critical to take action now to shield American agriculture from the effects of nuclear winter. To address this need, they suggest creating agricultural resilience kits. These kits will help food production operate during the precarious years following a nuclear conflict, providing time for supply chains and other infrastructure to heal.
“These kits would help sustain food production during the unstable years following a nuclear war, while supply chains and infrastructure recover,” – Armen Kemanian
Kemanian further elaborated that the concept of agricultural resilience kits could be applied beyond nuclear disasters to other catastrophic events. During periods when major shocks hit, building resilience is key to ensuring the world’s food security.
Beyond the importance of disaster recovery, the researchers highlight the need for changing agricultural practices in the wake of disasters like these. They suggest that switching to crop varieties capable of growing under cooler conditions and shorter growing seasons could potentially boost global crop production by 10%. This type of flexibility will be essential to cultivate food resilience in the wake of large-scale climate devastation.
“This investigation advances our understanding of global agricultural resilience and adaptation in response to catastrophic climatic disruptions,” – Yuning Shi
Preparing for Unthinkable Consequences
The warning shared by Shi and Kemanian is a warning call for all of us to be prepared for the unthinkable to come. Their finding serves as a timely reminder that global threats are not always caused by humans. Climate disasters have wrought havoc on food production.
“If we want to survive, we must be prepared, even for unthinkable consequences,” – Yuning Shi
As nations continue to grapple with geopolitical tensions and climate change, the insights from this study become ever more relevant. Recognizing the reality of the risks of nuclear conflict is essential. It can help pilot future policies that safeguard global food security, if done especially with the aid of smart agricultural techniques for recovery.