Two prominent scientists, Professor Stephen Hawkins and Professor Richard Thompson, have revisited their forecasts regarding the world’s coastlines, 25 years after initially presenting them. The duo’s research has been released in three separate articles, all published in the Marine Pollution Bulletin. They point out the triumphs and miscalculations of smart growth forecasts during the turn of the century. Their perspectives could not have come at a better time. International conversations surrounding global environmental hazards, including microplastics and climate change, are rapidly increasing.
Professor Richard Thompson, recently named one of TIME magazine’s 100 most influential people for 2025, plays a pivotal role in this discourse. He became well-known for his groundbreaking research on the dangers of microplastics. His work points to the urgent need to arrest their growing impact on marine ecosystems. Emeritus professor Stephen Hawkins, a Professor at the University of Southampton, uses his wealth of experience to engage. As a Lankester Research Fellow at the Marine Biological Association, his work emphasizes the need for long-term monitoring of dynamic coastal changes.
Assessing Past Predictions
Hawkins and Thompson’s studies revealed a particularly curious finding. They found that models used 25 years ago underestimated the efforts needed to mitigate impacts of chemical compounds such as tributyltin (TBT). Despite global treaties intended to limit these toxic compounds, researchers found that their original estimates were too low. They did not initially appreciate how long these nasty little pollutants last in coastal waters.
Additionally, the research highlighted a significant oversight: the underestimation of extreme weather events linked to climate change. Specifically, scientists predicted a proliferation of coastal defense structures in response to the growing threat of rising seas and more intense storms. What they failed to consider was the effect that these interventions would cause on broader coastal ecosystems.
“Our two studies have shown that over the past 25 years, it is possible to forecast some of the challenges the planet might face in the future and to identify ways they might be addressed. However, there will always be things we can’t foresee—and things that don’t materialize as scientists might expect—and finding a balance will always be key to minimizing the impact we have on our planet.” – Professor Richard Thompson OBE FRS
The Current State of Coastal Areas
Now, the world’s coastlines are more vulnerable to eutrophication than they were 20 years ago. This epidemic is caused by nutrient over-enrichment in water bodies, commonly worsened by the combined effects of agricultural runoff and wastewater inputs. With increasing access to our coastal areas through recreational use becoming more popular, the public’s love for these areas has increased, too. That dramatic increase in attention poses a very real challenge of focusing the human activity that often follows to these fragile ecosystems.
Professor Thompson emphasized the importance of recognizing both past environmental successes and ongoing challenges as international discussions unfold around initiatives such as the Global Plastics Treaty. Yet, he acknowledged, though progress has been made in awareness-building and legislative movement, threats to coastal health still loom.
“As international discussions continue around factors such as the Global Plastics Treaty and the most effective ways to reduce global warming, it is important that we recognize past environmental success and build on them.” – Professor Richard Thompson OBE FRS
Future Directions
Looking to the future, both Hawkins and Thompson reiterate that safeguarding our coastlines is crucial to preserving the health of our oceans. They characterize marine shorelines as “sentinels for the global ocean,” acting as critical, early warning indicators of climate change. Yet despite this progress, the combined effects of damaging land use and climate change persistently put these ecosystems at risk.
Hawkins’ remarks brought into focus the bigger picture of what coastal health means. He observed that these health indicators provide an interesting snapshot of the larger-scale issues plaguing the oceans. He made the case that protecting these areas is incredibly important. It protects the future of our nation’s biodiversity while continuing to support human communities that rely on coastal resources.
“Our shorelines are sentinels for the global ocean and, for many people, their window to what is happening in our seas. Protecting their continued health is essential, but they are constantly facing multiple threats from land, sea and environmental change.” – Professor Stephen Hawkins