A new study led by researchers at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution finds a concerning connection between climate change and increasing flooding events along the U.S. Northeast Coast. Lead geophysicists, atmospheric scientists at Princeton’s NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science collaborated on the study. The study published in the journal Science Advances shows landmark, unprecedented changes to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). All of these changes have taken place over the last 15 to 20 years as a direct result of increasing global temperatures.
The researchers developed a model to estimate potential flooding events along the USNEC that would have occurred without the influence of global warming. By cross-referencing these projections with flooding data collected through 2005-2022, the team exposed some shocking results. Climate scientists discovered that global warming sparked a 20% to 50% increase in inundation events up and down the US Northeast Coast. This unprecedented surge has hit coastal communities extremely hard.
Understanding AMOC Changes
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC, is one of the most important components of the Earth’s climate system. Even more astonishing, it regulates the weather and sea level. In the past 20 years, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has experienced some significant shifts that have been linked to global warming. These alterations have been linked to an increase in sea level variations and flooding, particularly affecting vulnerable regions along the eastern coastline of the United States.
Tidal maps recorded by the researchers, from 1912 to 2022. They changed the resolution to focus on particular improvements across the USNEC. This holistic approach gave them the confidence to interpret AMOC changes more accurately. As a result, they learned how these changes have exacerbated sea level rise and increased flooding in the area.
“Multidecadal sea level variations along the USNEC in observation and GFDL reanalyses.”
This statement, taken from a figure legend linked to the study, highlights just how vital their discoveries are. The changing nature of sea-level rise is something that isn’t just business as usual. They show the ways in which dramatic human-caused changes in climate are already impacting us.
Model Insights and Predictions
The smart model was created by a team of researchers, whose work delivers key information about potential flooding threats ahead. To do this, they compared historical trends and present-day observations. This enabled them to model at-risk flooding scenarios as much as three years in the future. This predictive ability is especially important for local governments and communities that are desperately trying to reduce their contributions to the effects of climate change.
Through their analysis, the team highlighted that many of the flooding events experienced over the past years can be directly associated with the changes in AMOC driven by global warming. These findings have profound implications that extend beyond statistics. Aside from presenting serious dangers to our infrastructure and ecosystems, they pose a public safety threat along the whole length of the USNEC.
Flooding is expected to be more frequent and more severe across the model’s findings. Unfortunately, this trend will not last unless we act boldly to curb greenhouse gas emissions. Such a prediction provides a wakeup call to policymakers and all stakeholders who need to directly confront the need for new climate resilience strategies.
Collaboration for Climate Research
Old Princeton’s NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and University of Maryland’s Center for Environmental Science joining forces. Together, this creative and dedicated collaboration demonstrates just how important interdisciplinary research is to effectively tackling the complex environmental challenges we face. By pooling expertise in geophysics and atmospheric science, the team has shed light on a critical aspect of climate change that requires immediate action.
With global temperatures expected to keep climbing, justifying the impact of climate change on these new extreme weather events is more important than ever. As the primary research team behind this tool, we’re dedicated to improving our models. They’re probing further into AMOC changes to provide the most precise predictions and useful insights for coastal guardians.