A new analysis released today in Communications Earth & Environment reveals a shocking reality. Climate change has sharply raised both the death toll and economic costs from wildfire across the contiguous continental U.S. between 2006-2020 due to human-caused climate change. The results show that climate change has already contributed to approximately 15,000 PM2.5-linked deaths due to wildfires. This tragic reality has led to a staggering $160 billion economic cost.
Federal research indicates that climate change is making wildfires more frequent and severe. These fires one week a year can easily add up to nearly half of the annual average of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in the entire country. The ten counties most affected by climate change-related wildfire fatalities have mortality rates comparable to those caused by cancer, marking a significant public health concern.
Wildfires and Health Impacts
Between 2006 and 2020, the research showed a shocking 62% expansion in the area of forest burned. This two-fold interconnected increase shows the overwhelming and escalating risk of wildfires. Notably, 2020 emerged as a record year for wildfire activity, characterized by extreme heat and dryness across the western states. According to the report, that means that almost one-third of the additional deaths attributable to climate change occurred within just this year. This alarming crisis has caused an estimated $58 billion in economic damages.
Our observationally-based modeling study examined interactions between multiple climate variables on wildfire PM2.5. It looked specifically at the negative health impacts and economic effects of these interactions. The results demonstrate a clear connection between increased wildfire smoke and mortality rates, particularly in regions where wildfires are prevalent. The top ten counties with the highest PM2.5 mortality rates are largely concentrated in the states of California and Oregon. These rates are all inextricably tied to human-caused climate change.
Economic Burden on Western States
Beyond the 18% of total deaths in the western states, wildfire smoke deaths become an economic burden. No state knows this pain better than California, Oregon, and Washington. Our findings paint a shocking picture — without the influence of anthropogenic climate change on PM2.5 concentrations from wildfire smoke, we would have saved over 50,000 lives annually. This modification would have provided billions of dollars more in economic stimulus relief as well.
The study emphasizes that addressing climate change is crucial not only for protecting public health but for mitigating financial losses. As a result, the total economic burden climbs to a breathtaking $160 billion across the period studied. This sobering figure illustrates how heavily climate-related factors impact our society. As wildfires continue to escalate, there is an urgent need for effective strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and enhance fire management practices.
The Way Forward
Given these results, the authors call for robust policies to fight climate change and its related harms. It starts with new investment in sustainable forestry and other practices to prevent, mitigate, or otherwise reduce the occurrence and severity of wildfires. By creating strong response systems, communities can be more equipped to face the increasing hurdles climate-driven wildfires will bring.
The study’s conclusions should be a wake-up call for policymakers and public health advocates. Climate change is making conditions more extreme. It’s critical that we focus our limited resources on the most effective strategies to address environmental injustices, so we can protect public health and the environment.