Scientists from the University of Groningen have created a robust statistical method to accurately predict when a tipping point to a new climate state will occur in the Arctic. This area is currently experiencing significant warming and a stark reduction in sea ice. The study, led by Professor Richard Bintanja, utilized 14 global climate models to reconstruct past climate conditions and forecast future changes. The pathbreaking research appeared in the online journal Scientific Reports on April 12. It’s designed to assist rural Arctic residents in adapting to their rapidly changing environment.
The study defines the Time of Emergence (ToE) as the moment when specific climate variables consistently exceed 97.5% of their historical values for a decade. Climate Professor Bintanja and his team estimated the ToE in terms of seven major climate variables. These variables are surface temperature, sea ice thickness, sea ice extent, rainfall and total precipitation. Their results indicate that temperature and sea ice cover have still not crossed the Threshold of Emergence (ToE). As for the entire central Arctic region, the sea ice thickness has already transitioned into a new climate state.
The research anticipates that the ToE for temperature and sea ice will occur before 2050, signaling significant changes in the Arctic’s climate dynamics. The shift of rainfall into an increased climate state will be a longer process. Experts estimate that this transition will happen no later than the end of the century. The different lag times for each climate variable are a result of natural variability, but just how complicated our climate systems are.
Bintanja stressed that the approach taken by the team enables a reliable and no‐inkling of a ToE across different climate models. This new approach uses multiple greenhouse gas emission scenarios along with different aerosol concentrations to be as predictive an accurate as possible. The research highlights that knowing when “anomalous weather” turns in to “a new climate” is key for developing the best adaptation approaches.
The implications of this research are far-reaching. Local residents likely rely on predictable climate patterns to earn their livelihoods. The Arctic is warming four times faster than the rest of the planet, making it the most visibly impacted area by climate change. This research provides important information as we begin to prepare for these new environmental realities.